Fantasy Baseball: 3 Early-Round Bust Candidates

Javier Baez, SS, Chicago Cubs

NFBC ADP: 13

After a breakout 2018 season, where he mashed his way to fantasy starter status with 34 homers, 21 steals, and cracking the 100 run/runs batted in barrier in each category, Javier Baez has vaulted himself into first- to second-round pick consideration. Is that success sustainable though?

There's a few things that need to be considered. Baez batted a career-best .290, but with only a 4.5% walk rate he isn't as valuable in on-base percentage leagues. And that batting average could be in jeopardy a bet, as Baez's 25.9% strikeout rate is scary enough, but his 45.5% O-Swing % was the second-highest among all qualified hitters.

While the power looks legitimate, as THE BAT (33 homers) and Steamer (29 homers) both seem to think last season was repeatable, Baez swiped only three steals in the second half of 2018, and overall, his fly-ball rate dropped from 36.0% in 2017 to 32.3% in 2018.

Baez has the upside of a top 15 guy, but he possesses enough warts that it may be worth passing on him in favor of others like Jose Altuve or Trevor Story.