You may have caught wind of it, but Bryce Harper is having an underwhelming season. The thing is, though, he hasn't actually been that bad.
I mean, his .214 average is horrific while his .351 wOBA is miles away from last season's clip of .416. But Harper is getting crushed by an unsustainably low .226 BABIP. His career average BABIP is .314, and the league average BABIP this year is .295. Harper's .226 mark from this year is the sixth-lowest among qualified hitters.
The low BABIP looks to be nothing more than some terrible luck. Harper's batted-ball profile holds up very well compared to his numbers in previous seasons. In fact, in some ways, these are the best batted-ball numbers he's ever produced.
| Season | Plate Appearances | Hard-Hit Rate | Fly-Ball Rate | wOBA | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 597 | 30.1% | 32.9% | .352 | .310 |
| 2013 | 497 | 35.6% | 34.6% | .371 | .306 |
| 2014 | 395 | 30.2% | 34.6% | .338 | .352 |
| 2015 | 654 | 40.9% | 39.3% | .461 | .369 |
| 2016 | 627 | 35.1% | 42.4% | .343 | .264 |
| 2017 | 492 | 34.3% | 37.6% | .416 | .356 |
| 2018 | 414 | 41.1% | 39.6% | .351 | .226 |
With a career-best hard-hit rate and a stout fly-ball rate, it's only a matter of time until Harper gets back to putting up elite numbers.
Heck, even with the awful BABIP luck, Harper is still 45th among hitters in ESPN's Player Rater thanks to 23 jacks and a sparkling 18.8% walk rate.
If you can get Harper for anything less than what you'd normally pay for an elite hitter, you should jump on this opportunity.