Price: $3,000

Right-hander Junior Guerra will be pitching for Milwaukee tonight, and this plus matchup leaves the Cincinnati Reds with a solid 4.50 implied total, the third-highest on Thursday's short four-game main slate.

Guerra hasn't been nearly as good as his 2.82 ERA might suggest, posting a 4.16 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) over 10 games. He's also allowing some ridiculous contact, with a career-low soft-hit rate (17.8%) and career-high hard-hit rate (40.4%), as well as a 40.4% fly-ball rate.

Jesse Winker has made terrific contact against right-handed pitchers this year, turning a 42.9% hard-hit and 11.6% soft-hit rate into a .343 wOBA. That brings his two-year averages to a 41.1% hard-hit rate, 10.7% soft-hit rate and .376 wOBA against righties, putting him in a prime spot atop the Reds' order.