Price: $10,600

With Max Scherzer playing in the afternoon and not a part of the main slate, that leaves top-end pitching as more of a question mark than we're used to seeing when Scherzer pitches. There's a pretty clear top-three tonight with Luis Severino, Corey Kluber and Charlie Morton, and Severino's combination of floor and upside makes him the top option of the three in all formats.

His 3.02 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) ranks second in that group, while his 30.2% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging-strike rate both rank first. His 44.9 FanDuel points per game sit only a shade behind Kluber's 45.1, and he has at least 58 in 3 of his last 5 outings.

His matchup tonight is also a terrific one. All three of those top options are righties, and among their opponents, the Philadelphia Phillies have the second-lowest wRC+ against right-handers (96), barely above the low water mark (95). The Phillies also not only have the highest strikeout rate against righties in that group, but the highest in the Majors at 26.5%. None of the other three's opponents crack the top-10 on that front.

With a hefty -214 moneyline, the New York Yankees are the main slate's third-biggest favorites, and the Phillies' 3.09 implied total is the lowest. Combining the lowest implied total with a huge strikeout rate, along with a pitcher with strikeout stuff like Severino, he's a very safe option at the top tonight.