MLB

5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 4/23/18

Jason Schandl  —  @JasonSchandl Apr 23rd, 2018
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Kike Hernandez, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers

Price: $2,500

It's easy to like the Dodgers' offense tonight in a matchup with Jarlin Garcia and the Marlins.

Garcia has allowed only 2 earned runs in 21 innings this season, but he hasn't pitched nearly as well as that makes it look on the surface. He has a 14.3% walk rate, and his .096 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is comically low. For context, he finished 2017 with a .263 BABIP, and the lowest mark for a qualifying starter in 2017 was .244. He's benefiting from a massive dose of small-sample variance, and with a 4.58 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) to open his career, we should see his numbers crash back down to earth very soon.

Kike Hernandez doesn't post big numbers overall, but just looking at his splits against left-handed pitching, he has turned in a .377 wOBA and .280 isolated slugging (ISO) on a 41.5% hard-hit rate since the start of the 2017 season. You usually have to pay way up for production like that, making Hernandez an absolute steal in such a favorable matchup.

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