3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Players to Avoid on 4/19/18

Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets

FanDuel Price: $7,500

On paper, Matt Harvey is a perfect positive regression candidate with his 4.80 ERA underperforming his 3.70 SIERA. However, there are a few reasons we should be skeptical of Harvey's strong early-season peripherals, and the matchup is also a poor one.

Harvey hasn't gotten opposing hitters to chase pitches out of the zone, which was one of his key strengths during his early-career success. From 2012 to 2016 (Harvey missed the 2014 season due to injury), opposing batters against Harvey swung at 32.0% or more of pitches outside of the strike zone each season. In 2017, however, that mark was just 27.3%, and this year it has fallen all the way to 23.6%.

This low chase rate has correlated directly with a low swinging-strike rate. From 2012 to 2016, Harvey's swinging-strike rate was in the double digits each year, but it was 7.5% last year and is at 8.7% this year.

One of the other big reasons for Harvey's early-career success was his ability to limit hard contact. From 2012 to 2015 Harvey never allowed higher than a 28.1% hard-hit rate. However, in 2016 that rate climbed to 30.3%. It was 32.5% in 2017, and it is a 40.0% in a small sample in 2018.

On top of that, Harvey is dealing with a matchup against an Atlanta Braves offense that ranks in the top 10 in wRC+ and wOBA against right-handed pitching so far in 2018, making the New York Mets' righty a scary play tonight.