Which MLB Teams Do Our Models Like Less Than Vegas Does?

The Giants made a lot of moves this offseason, but our models aren't as optimistic about them as Vegas is.

Another baseball season is on the horizon, which means it’s time to look at forecasted win totals.

Our team projections generally correlate with what Vegas is expecting (at 0.95 to be precise), and for 20 of the 30 teams, our number is within three wins of Vegas’ total (including being within one win on 10 of them).

However, there are a few notable cases of disagreement that are worth our attention. Let's look at the teams our model likes less than Vegas does, and next week, we’ll examine the teams that we like more.

For clarity, we'll be using the over/under numbers from