Fantasy Baseball: The 20 Luckiest Starting Pitchers in 2017
Players Ranked 20th to 11th
We've seen lists like this throughout the year include a wide range of pitchers, and our of end-of-the-year look isn't any different. What makes it interesting is that many have arrived here in a unique way.
The below 10 pitchers make up the bottom half of our top-20 luckiest pitchers list.
| Rank | Player | IP | K% | BB% | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | SIERA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | CC Sabathia | 148.2 | 19.3% | 8.0% | .276 | 79.0% | 3.69 | 4.45 | -0.76 |
| 19 | Marcus Stroman | 201.0 | 19.7% | 7.4% | .310 | 78.1% | 3.09 | 3.85 | -0.76 |
| 18 | Jake Odorizzi | 143.1 | 21.0% | 10.1% | .227 | 72.5% | 4.14 | 4.90 | -0.76 |
| 17 | Miguel Gonzalez | 156.0 | 14.6% | 8.0% | .289 | 71.0% | 4.62 | 5.39 | -0.77 |
| 16 | Alex Wood | 147.0 | 24.7% | 6.2% | .277 | 80.0% | 2.82 | 3.59 | -0.77 |
| 15 | Zach Davies | 191.1 | 15.2% | 6.7% | .302 | 74.2% | 3.90 | 4.72 | -0.82 |
| 14 | Alex Cobb | 179.1 | 17.3% | 5.9% | .282 | 75.7% | 3.66 | 4.48 | -0.82 |
| 13 | Kyle Freeland | 149.2 | 15.0% | 9.2% | .307 | 74.9% | 4.15 | 4.99 | -0.84 |
| 12 | Stephen Strasburg | 175.1 | 29.1% | 6.7% | .274 | 77.9% | 2.52 | 3.37 | -0.85 |
| 11 | Taijuan Walker | 157.1 | 21.4% | 8.9% | .290 | 73.1% | 3.49 | 4.42 | -0.93 |
A Successful Reinvention
I'm old enough to remember when New York Yankees starting pitcher (and current free agent) CC Sabathia had a fastball that sat in the mid 90s while being one of the game's most dominant pitchers. Those days are long gone (his average fastball velocity in 2017 was 90.9 MPH), but the veteran southpaw has found a way to reinvent himself on the mound.
From 2002 to 2015, Sabathia never threw his fastball below 50.0% of the time, and that number was just north of 56.0% in 2014 and 2015. After throwing the ol' number-one just 34.4% of the time in 2016, he took it a step further this year -- among pitchers with 100-plus innings, only R.A. Dickey (you know, a knuckleballer) threw his fastball less frequently (18%) than Sabathia (23.5%).
With regard to the rest of the southpaw's pitch usage, he set single-season career highs in throwing his slider (31.1%) and cutter (30.0%), which likely helped him continue inducing weak contact. Sabathia has produced consecutive soft-hit rates of at least 20.0% for just the second time in his career (24.0% in 2016, 24.1% in 2017), and the 70.6% rate at which opposing hitters made contact on balls outside the strike zone is also a new personal high.
Knowing that he landed on this list is important, but it's also important to notice trends -- it's the second consecutive year he's outperformed his SIERA.
Coors Field Ain't No Thang
Usually, Colorado Rockies hurlers struggle performing well in home games at the notoriously hitter-friendly Coors Field. That wasn't a problem for rookie hurler Kyle Freeland, who posted a 3.72 ERA in 87 home innings, but a 4.57 ERA in 69 road innings (nice). A reason for that could partially be because his ground-ball rate and hard-hit rate allowed in front of the home fans (58.1% and 30.0%, respectively) were much better than they were on the road (48.9% and 34.3%).
Freeland didn't prove to be a huge strikeout pitcher, and with a 1.49 WHIP, he worked with runners on base during most of his starts. Opposing hitters made contact against him 83.6% of the time, so it was imperative for him to limit the damage as much as possible, which is exactly what he did. The young lefty's 24.3% soft-hit rate was one of the best among this group of 125 hurlers, while his 74.9% strand rate was a smidge above the league average of 72.1%.
A Cy Young Finalist?
I wasn't lying when I said there would be a wide range of pitchers here. Exhibit A is Washington Nationals hurler Stephen Strasburg, who is one of three finalists for the National League Cy Young award. Just because a pitcher is on this list doesn't mean they didn't have a tremendous year, though -- it doesn't matter if Strasburg's ERA settled in where it actually did (2.52) or closer to his SIERA (3.37), he dominated either way.
After a 2016 campaign in which he relied heavily on his slider (17.1%), Strasburg cut back that usage (6.8%) in favor of his curveball (22.5%) and changeup (18.9%). Of his three most-used pitches (four-seam fastball, curveball, changeup), those two were easily his most successful offerings.
With his breaking ball, Strasburg produced a 32.1% chase rate and 12.6% swinging-strike rate while holding opposing hitters to a 26 wRC+. His changeup was even better, producing a 49.4% chase rate and 25.9% swinging-strike rate to go along with an eye-popping -14 wRC+ from opposing hitters.
