MLB
Who Were the Luckiest and Unluckiest Starting Pitchers in July?
Already in the midst of a tough year, the month of July wasn't any easier for Jeff Samardzija.

Pitchers Not Living Up to Their Peripherals

On the other end of the spectrum, the table below displays 15 hurlers who struggled through a rough July. According to their SIERA, though, they pitched much better than some of their traditional stats say.

Rank Player K% BB% HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA SIERA Diff
1 Yu Darvish 24.8% 6.0% 2.10 .341 55.6% 7.20 3.82 3.38
2 James Shields 14.5% 10.5% 2.88 .329 58.2% 9.00 5.66 3.34
3 Clayton Richard 15.6% 5.7% 1.53 .419 64.7% 7.36 4.17 3.19
4 Wade Miley 15.8% 12.2% 1.61 .380 62.3% 8.68 5.54 3.14
5 Jon Gray 23.1% 6.0% 1.40 .405 61.5% 6.66 3.89 2.77
6 Carlos Rodon 31.9% 11.8% 2.42 .367 75.3% 6.23 3.75 2.48
7 Ivan Nova 19.7% 3.3% 2.51 .341 71.4% 6.28 3.92 2.36
8 Tim Adleman 18.7% 8.6% 2.35 .326 62.8% 7.34 5.03 2.31
9 Ubaldo Jimenez 22.4% 9.1% 1.97 .356 67.1% 6.75 4.45 2.30
10 Jesse Chavez 17.8% 9.4% 2.31 .347 70.6% 6.94 5.04 1.90
11 Jeff Hoffman 11.2% 10.4% 1.67 .322 58.1% 8.00 6.10 1.90
12 Jeff Samardzija 22.3% 3.1% 1.48 .341 64.7% 5.64 3.75 1.89
13 Anibal Sanchez 20.8% 5.0% 0.98 .353 64.3% 5.53 4.16 1.37
14 Carlos Martinez 17.6% 8.4% 2.17 .326 73.3% 5.90 4.53 1.37
15 Nick Pivetta 23.6% 6.9% 1.98 .209 59.7% 5.45 4.09 1.36


So, We Meet Again

Jeff Samardzija hasn't had a great year for the San Francisco Giants, but he's actually been pretty good. If it feels like you've already heard that this season, it's because you have. And after taking a look at a few different areas, it looks like that .341 BABIP allowed -- his second-highest of any month this season -- is a big reason behind his struggles.

A lot of it has to do with his batted-ball profile. Check out his month-by-month progression in line-drive rate (LD%), ground-ball rate (GB%), fly-ball rate (FB%), and hard-hit rate (Hard%) this season.

Month LD% GB% FB% Hard%
April 30.6% 38.8% 30.6% 31.0%
May 25.5% 41.8% 32.7% 27.9%
June 20.6% 49.5% 29.9% 24.5%
July 20.8% 42.7% 36.5% 29.2%


It's awesome that he's barely walking anyone, but that also means there are more opportunities for opposing hitters to do damage. In July, that didn't work out so well for Samardzija.

It's Still Catching Up to Him

Back in April, Baltimore Orioles southpaw hurler Wade Miley got off to a surprisingly fast start, posting a 2.32 ERA with a 29.7% strikeout rate though his first 31 innings. However, the signs of regression were there, mainly because of his 4.37 SIERA, 14.7% walk rate, and 9.6% swinging-strike rate.

Over his next 78.1 frames, he's posted a 6.89 ERA with a 15.2% strikeout rate. Those numbers are backed up with a 5.30 SIERA, 11.5% walk rate and 7.0% swinging-strike rate. And if we're looking at his progression from each month, it ain't pretty. His wOBA allowed has climbed each month so far this season, from .280 in April all the way up to .408 in July.

Yu Deserve a Change of Scenery

After allowing 10 runs in just 3.2 innings against the Miami Marlins on July 26th -- the first time he's allowed more than seven earned runs in a single start -- Yu Darvish will be making his next start as a member of the best team in baseball.

If only every hurler was that lucky, right?

Darvish had a dreadful July, but it didn't seem to impact his trade value all that much, and it's probably because of his peripherals. He still managed to post a 3.82 SIERA, which gave him the largest difference between his SIERA and ERA (7.20) among any qualified pitcher in the league.

Something else tells me that getting traded to the Dodgers -- who have a solid chance of not only getting to the World Series, but winning it -- may rejuvenate him moving forward. There's always the desire of finishing a year strong with free agency on the horizon, too.

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