Which Teams are Overperforming and Underperforming So Far this MLB Season?
Have you ever sat down to eat something for the first time and thought, "Well, this is overrated"? On the flip side, maybe you've found yourself saying, "Wow, this is surprisingly good!"
This type of thing applies to many areas of life. Things are overrated and underrated. Snacks, movies and music -- you name it, we rate it one way or the other.
The same goes for sports players and teams. Teams overperform and underperform relative to expectations, but odds say they are bound to regress to the mean one way or the other, especially baseball teams who have a 162-game sample of a season.
Roughly 40 games into the MLB season, this goes for all teams. Because of the volatility in baseball, no one team has performed exactly to where their on-field play would have them to this point.
Our nERD metric is as accurate an indicator of on-field play as any. It represents the runs scored above or below a league-average team per game -- in other words, expected run differential per game.
So, if we look at nERD against a team's actual run differential per game, the difference (nERD minus run differential per game) between the two tells us whether they are performing above or below their expected run differential. It follows suit that this would then tell us whether that team, based on their current play, is bound to win or lose more games as the season goes on.
Which teams fall on which side of expectations?