French Open Men's Final Betting Guide: Sunday 6/11/23

Novak Djokovic is coming off a big win over Carlos Alcaraz and is now one win away from capturing his 23rd Grand Slam title. Can he finish the deal against Casper Ruud?

The 2023 edition of the French Open has flown by, with both singles championship matches coming this weekend. The men's singles final takes place on Sunday, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find the most betting value?

Novak Djokovic vs. Casper Ruud

Novak Djokovic 3-0 Sets (+140)
Novak Djokovic -5.5 Games (-132)

Friday's semifinal match between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz looked like it was going to live up to its billing after they split the first two sets, but Alcaraz would ultimately be hindered by cramps early in the third, leading to Djokovic dominating the final two sets at 6-1 apiece to advance. The 20-year-old Alcaraz admitted that nerves may have also played a factor in his defeat.

Well, if the tournament's clear-cut favorite couldn't keep up with Djokovic, what chance does a guy have who's never won a set against him?

Casper Ruud is an excellent clay courts player (21-6 over the last 52 weeks) and is coming off impressive wins over Holger Rune and Alexander Zverev. He's now advanced to the final in three of the past five Grand Slams, including last year's French Open.

While that's all well and good, he's 0-4 in his head-to-head against Novak, which includes going 0-8 in sets. Two of those losses came on clay, with the most recent loss on the surface coming in last year's Rome semifinals (6-4, 6-3).

Although Tennis Abstract gives Djokovic "just" a 67.9% win probability, he's likely getting docked for going just 5-3 on clay in the spring lead-up to this tournament, and it's pretty clear that he's dialed in now. Let's not forget that even on his "worst" surface, Djokovic has won roughly 80% of his career clay matches.

While we can't rule out Ruud finally winning a set on Sunday, banking on a dominant win for Novak feels like the more comfortable way to squeeze value out of this match.