French Open Men's Semifinals Betting Guide: Friday 6/9/23

The 2023 edition of the French Open is into the second week of play, and we should have a lot of fun matches upcoming as the top seeds get pitted against one another. The men's semifinals take place on Friday, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find the most betting value?

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic

Over 38.5 Total Match Games (-110)
Novak Djokovic Moneyline (+168)

This may very well be the real championship match of men's singles in what should be an epic slugfest. World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz is masterful on clay and is the rightful favorite to win this tournament, but in order to get there, he'll have to go through one of the greatest of all time.

It says something that this is Novak Djokovic's weakest surface, considering he's amassed a 79.9% career win percentage on clay with 18 titles. He isn't coming off his smoothest clay season, going 5-3 prior to the French Open, but he's lost just four times all season and took home yet another Australian Open trophy in January. Rarely do we ever question Djokovic's form.

Novak is no stranger to success in this tournament, either. He recently set the record for most Roland Garros quarterfinals ever (17) and has advanced to the finals 6 times, winning the championship twice. Were it not for a certain Rafael Nadal, Djokovic would no doubt have a few more French Open trophies to his name.

Of course, the 20-year-old Alcaraz has had a meteoric rise to the top of the rankings and has quickly proven to be one of the sport's elite players. Prior to the tournament, he went 20-2 on clay this season, and he's begun his career with an 81.9% win percentage on this surface. Despite his age, he already has seven clay titles under his belt, with three of them coming in 2023.

Alcaraz has dropped just one set this tournament and is coming off a dominant straight-sets win over fifth-ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas. Even against Djokovic, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see Alcaraz come away with yet another victory.

But Djokovic is tied with Nadal for the most Grand Slam titles of all time, and with Nadal likely out of the picture for the rest of the year following surgery, this is a golden opportunity for him to take a commanding lead. He's not about to go out of this tournament quietly, and this has all the makings of a five-set marathon.

For that reason, arguably the safest way to target this match is to take the over on match games. Even the over on 3.5 sets (-210) is priced up a bit too much for my liking, but it's a good indicator that oddsmakers also see this one going the distance.

If you're looking to pick a winner, Djokovic feels like the better value. After all, how often do we ever get Novak at plus money, let alone at a number like +168?

It's worth noting that by the numbers, Alcaraz is the more likely winner, though. According to Tennis Abstract, Djokovic has just a 38.0% win probability, which falls roughly in line with his implied odds. In their lone head-to-head (also on clay), Alcaraz got the win, but it was a tight three-setter last year at Madrid (6-7, 7-5, 7-6).

While that points to the risk in backing Novak, keep in mind that this is a guy who's advanced to the final in eight of the last nine majors he's played in. The only time he didn't over that span was a quarterfinals loss to Nadal -- the most dominant clay court player ever -- at last year's French Open. Novak Djokovic wins the match and both players win a set (+260) is another way to go about this while adding a little more bang for your buck.

Casper Ruud vs. Alexander Zverev

Casper Ruud Moneyline (-102)

While the winner of this Casper Ruud-Alexander Zverev match is likely playing for second place when it's all said and done, this nightcap should be a good one, as well.

Neither player is coming in at plus money on FanDuel Sportsbook, which speaks to how close this one could be. Both players have strong track records on clay -- winning over 70% of their matches -- and both ranked as high as second in the world rankings last year.

But in terms of recent form, the nod goes to Ruud. The Norwegian was 11-5 on clay entering the tournament, which included a title win at Estoril, and he's fresh off an impressive victory over World No. 6 Holger Rune, who was in great form this clay season. Ruud's also made plenty of noise at these Grand Slams lately, reaching the finals of both the French Open and US Open in 2022.

Zverev suffered a serious ankle injury at this very same event (and round) last year, which caused him to miss the rest of the 2022 season. It's been a long road back for him, as evidenced by a mediocre 2023 record (16-14) prior to Roland Garros. He was a solid 8-5 on clay this spring, but it's fair to wonder if he's ready -- both physically and mentally -- to make it all the way through to a major final. Zverev hasn't been to the title match of any tournament since before the injury.

According to Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Ruud is the superior clay player over the last 52 weeks, and it projects him as the winner 56.4% of the time, which is good value at what is close to even odds.