MISC

French Open Quarterfinals Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/7/23

Holger Rune has performed well on clay this year but finds himself as a slight underdog to a fantastic clay player in Casper Ruud. How should we expect this matchup to shake out?

The 2023 edition of the French Open is into the second week of play, and we should have a lot of fun matches upcoming as the top seeds get pitted against one another. The quarterfinals continue on Wednesday, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find the most betting value?

Holger Rune vs. Casper Ruud

Holger Rune Moneyline (+108)
Holger Rune Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+198)

This is a difficult matchup to evaluate in what should be a competitive quarterfinal that goes four or five sets between two top-six seeds.

The long-term data points to Casper Ruud taking this, and from that perspective, he's the rightful favorite. Over his career, Ruud has been an absolute beast on clay, going 110-42 with a 72.4% win percentage -- by far his best surface -- and 9 of his 10 titles have come on clay. Furthermore, Ruud has defeated Holger Rune in four out of five matches in their head-to-head, and all of those matches also happened to come on clay.

But where it gets interesting is how Rune has performed on the surface in 2023. While Rune has a solid 31-21 career record on clay (59.6%), he's been lights out on the surface this calendar year at 13-3. That record alone might not be enough to sway us, but it includes wins over heavy hitters like Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, and Jannik Sinner.

And his lone win over Ruud? That happened on clay just this past month in the Rome semifinals.

Per Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings -- which accounts for the last 52 weeks of play -- Rune is ranked just barely over Ruud when accounting for the surface and ultimately gives him a 59.4% chance of victory. While that could be overselling Rune against an opponent with such a strong track record, it still suggests that we're getting good value on the underdog.

But as noted at the top, it's hard to imagine Rune getting through this in straight sets, either, and both players have dropped multiple sets in this tournament. Therefore, there's some added bang for your buck by siding with Rune to drop a set and still win the match at +198.