MISC

French Open Quarterfinals Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/6/23

Kenyatta Storin  —  @KenyattaStorin Jun 5th, 2023
Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite to win the tournament, but he gets a difficult test against Stefanos Tsitsipas. How should we bet this match?

The 2023 edition of the French Open is into the second week of play, and we should have a lot of fun matches upcoming as the top seeds get pitted against one another. The quarterfinals begin on Tuesday, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find the most betting value?

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Over 3.5 Total Sets (-142)
Over 35.5 Total Match Games (-118)
Carlos Alcaraz Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+120)

This should be a compelling matchup between the 1 seed Carlos Alcaraz and 5 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, but it's also hard to see Alcaraz losing on this surface. Not only is he 20-2 on clay this year, but he has an absurd 81.9% career win percentage on clay.

Alcaraz is also 4-0 against Tsitsipas in their head-to-head, and his two most recent victories came on clay, including a straight-sets win in the Barcelona final.

That being said, Tsitispas is no slouch on clay himself. He's 13-4 on the surface this year, and three of those four losses came against top-10 opponents. He has a 75.6% win percentage on clay, too, which is easily his best of the three surfaces. In fact, according to Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, he's the second-best clay player over the last 52 weeks behind Alcaraz.

Were this virtually any other opponent, backing the Greek player as a +375 underdog would be a no-brainer, but Alcaraz may very well be in a league of his own on clay, perhaps following in the footsteps of his countryman, a certain 14-time French Open champion you may have heard of.

But Tsitsipas' strong credentials suggest that this won't be a cakewalk for Alcaraz, either. I like the chances of this match going at least four sets, which is why the overs for total sets and match games look like the best ways to target this matchup.

Along the same lines, we can squeeze out even more value by backing Alcaraz to win the match while still dropping at least one set to his opponent.