US Open Men's Semifinals Betting Guide: Friday 9/9/22
With both Serena Williams and Rafael Nadal ousted from the US Open, it's time for the new guard to shine in the second week of play.
What better way to get in on the action than making some wagers on FanDuel Sportsbook?
The men's semifinals take place on Friday. How should we bet the matches?
Frances Tiafoe (+160) over Carlos Alcaraz
Under normal circumstances, Carlos Alcaraz might be the easy pick here, but he's tougher to get on board with as a -194 favorite due to the way American Frances Tiafoe is playing right now.
While Tiafoe has played quite a few tiebreaks in this tournament, he's ultimately lost just one set while netting impressive wins over Diego Swartzman, Rafael Nadal, and Andrey Rublev -- all top-16 opponents. Getting the better of Nadal -- one of the greatest of all time -- at any Slam is no small feat.
It's sure looking like a breakthrough tournament for the 24-year-old, who is in his first ever Grand Slam semifinal.
Tiafoe will have his hands full to add another top-tier opponent to his list of victims, but Alcaraz has now gone through back-to-back grueling five-setters against Marin Cilic and Jannik Sinner. The Cilic match went nearly 4 hours while the Sinner match went a whopping 5 hours and 15 minutes. Both matchups went well past 2:00 am, and the latter concluded at 2:50 am, which was the latest finish in US Open history.
Even for a 19-year-old, over nine hours of court time across the span of a few days will take its toll both mentally and physically. Tiafoe will also have the American fans firmly behind him, and it's no secret that he loves feeding off the New York crowd.
That being said, it's hard to see Alcaraz bowing out quietly, so Frances Tiafoe Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+250) is definitely in play, as well.
Along those same lines, if you're wary of betting against the higher-seeded player, Over Total Match Games 38.5 (-135) is a more conservative approach to wagering on this match. Win or lose, it would surprise no one if this is another Alcaraz match that goes the distance.
Casper Ruud (-200) over Karen Khachanov
Of the four remaining male competitors, Karen Khachanov has to be the biggest surprise, and he has by far the worst odds of taking home the trophy on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Khachanov came into the tournament with a solid if unspectacular 26-20 record this season, and he was just two games over .500 on hard courts (13-11). He made little noise in the US Open Series lead-up, failing to string together consecutive wins at Washington, Montreal, or Cincinnati.
While Khachanov deserves plenty of credit for earning wins over Pablo Carreno Busta and Nick Kyrgios, this is another case where we're seeing a player coming off two straight five-setters. Additionally, the only match in this tournament where he hasn't gone at least four sets was against Jack Draper, who was forced to retire due to injury after the third set.
On the other hand, Casper Ruud is fresh off an impressive straight-sets win over 13th-ranked Matteo Berrettini, and he's gunning for a shot at the No. 1 ranking. In 2022, Ruud is 38-15 overall and 12-6 on hard courts. While he failed to get a win at Cincinnati this summer, he made his way to the semifinals at Montreal before losing to a top-10 opponent.
Unlike Tiafoe, there isn't anything monumental about Khachanov's US Open run to stray far from his overall numbers, and Tennis Abstract is only giving him a 28.8% chance of pulling off the upset.
This feels like a spot to ride with the more consistent Ruud as he continues his quest to reach world No. 1 and make his second major final of 2022. However, given that Khachanov is serving well and has been resilient in this tournament, it wouldn't be shocking to see him win a set, so Casper Ruud Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+132) is an option much like the other match.
