US Open Women's Semifinals Betting Guide: Thursday 9/8/22
With both Serena Williams and Rafael Nadal ousted from the US Open, it's time for the new guard to shine in the second week of play.
What better way to get in on the action than making some wagers on FanDuel Sportsbook?
The women's semifinals take place on Thursday night. How should we bet the matches?
Caroline Garcia (-152) over Ons Jabeur
Earlier in the season, betting on fifth-ranked Ons Jabeur as an underdog over Caroline Garcia would be a no-brainer. But no player is in better form than Garcia right now, and she's absolutely obliterating the competition.
Garcia hasn't dropped a set at the US Open on her way to the semis, and that includes dominating wins over a former champion in Bianca Andreescu and uber-talented American Coco Gauff.
And her hot play goes way further back than this tournament. Dating back to mid-June, Garcia has gone a ridiculous 31-4 up until now, which includes tournament wins on three different surfaces between Bad Homburg (grass), Warsaw (clay), and Cincinnati (hard).
A WTA 1000 event, her Cincinnati championship was especially impressive, and even more so because she needed to work her way through qualifying just to make the main draw. It was no cupcake schedule, either, as she needed to defeat top-10 opponents in Maria Sakkari, Jessica Pegula, and Aryna Sabalenka to make the finals, and fellow finalist Petra Kvitova is no slouch, either.
Of course, Jabeur is also no slouch; she was the Wimbledon runner-up after all. But she had a shaky summer hard-court season, going just 2-3 across three tournaments. While Jabeur has only dropped one set in this tournament, she's had to work her way through a tiebreak in each of her last two matches to move on.
Overall, Garcia is excelling in all phases right now, and her power and aggression will be difficult for Jabeur to stop.
Iga Swiatek (-215) over Aryna Sabalenka
I wish we were getting more value in backing world No. 1 Iga Swiatek, but she's the top-ranked player for a reason.
However, there's no question that Swiatek is far more vulnerable compared to earlier in the season when she won a ridiculous 37 matches in a row before falling to Alize Cornet at Wimbledon.
Swiatek has been shaky in her last two matches against Jule Niemeier and Jessica Pegula, but she's still found a way to get the job done. She had to come back from a set down against Niemeier before taking care of business with a 6-0 final set, while she need a second-set tiebreak to finish a straight-sets win over Pegula.
Despite all of this, Aryna Sabalenka hasn't exactly been the most consistent player herself, and it hasn't been an easy tournament for her, either. She needed three sets to defeat both Kaia Kanepi and Danielle Collins, and in both cases, she needed to come back from a set down to pull off the victory.
Their recent history also favors Swiatek. While Sabalenka won a three-setter at the WTA finals in 2021, she's since been dominated by Swiatek in three straight matches at Doha (6-2,6-3), Stuttgart (6-2, 6-2), and Rome (6-2, 6-1). Two of those last three came on clay, but it could still be a tough mental hurdler for Sabalenka to overcome.
Per Tennis Abstract, Swiatek is the best active hard-courts player on tour, and that gives her a massive 77.2% win probability over Sabalenka. Considering -215 gives 68.3% implied win odds, there could still be value in siding with Swiatek at this number.
Given Swiatek's shakier form of late, another option is to opt for Iga Swiatek Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+270) under the assumption that she drops a set to Sabalenka before finishing the job.