US Open Third Round Betting Guide: Saturday 9/3/22
The US Open is underway, and all eyes are on Serena Williams in what's expected to be the last tournament of her career.
But we should see plenty of other storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than making some wagers on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The third round continues on Saturday. Which matches have the most betting value?
Danielle Collins (-164) over Alize Cornet
On the women's side, I don't feel strongly enough about any of the underdogs to confidently back one, but there could be some value in siding with favorite Danielle Collins instead.
After missing the entire pre-US Open summer hard-court season due to injury, Collins entered the tournament on very uncertain ground, particularly with a daunting first-round opponent in Naomi Osaka.
As it turns out, Collins was up to the task, besting the former world No. 1 in straight sets. She then took care of business in similar fashion over Cristina Bucsa the following round.
It's worth remembering that Collins was the runner-up at the Australian Open at the beginning of the year, losing to then No. 1 Ashleigh Barty, and she was a semifinalist at the hard-court event in 2019, as well. Despite a spotty record at the US Open, the American has a 61.1% win percentage in tour-level hard-court matches.
Alize Cornet is always a tough out, and she deserves credit for ousting defending champ Emma Raducanu in the first round. That being said, Raducanu had an inconsistent 2022 season following last year's breakthrough, and Cornet is roughly a .500 career player on hard courts.
According to Tennis Abstract, Collins has a top-10 surface-blended Elo rating on hard courts, and they peg her as the winner 74.9% of the time versus Cornet. With the -164 price signifying just 62.1% implied win odds, putting money on Collins looks like a potential value.
Frances Tiafoe Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+136)
Frances Tiafoe always feels like he's on the verge of breaking through for a deep run at a Slam, yet he's made the quarterfinals only once (2019 Australian Open) so far in his career.
Still, he's been to the Round of 16 in back-to-back US Opens, and he's looked the part once again in 2022, winning both of his first two matches in straight sets. He's had to navigate some tight sets, though, as three have gone to a tiebreak.
This summer, Tiafoe went 6-4 on hard courts, and three of his losses went three sets, including a pair of tough opponents in Wimbledon runner-up Nick Kyrgios and top American Taylor Fritz.
His opponent will be the always feisty Diego Schwartzman. The 5'7 Argentine can be a handful, but he's looked a little shaky in his opening rounds.
In the first round, Schwartzman was down two sets to none against Jack Sock and looked to be on the outs, but a back issue crept up for Sock in the third round. Schwartzman blew by Sock 6-0 in the third, and Sock ultimately retired early in the fourth despite still holding a one-set lead.
While things went a little smoother for Schwartzman in the second round against Alexei Popyrin, it was a tightly-contested 7-6, 7-5, 7-6 victory.
In the summer lead-up, Schwartzman played just five hard-court matches (3-2 record), and the vast majority of his 2022 wins have come on clay.
Schwartzman leads the head-to-head 2-1, but Tiafoe won the last match in straight sets, and his two losses both went three. All of those matches came in 2021, as well.
This should be a close matchup, but Tiafoe appears to be in better form right now. He'll also benefit from the American home crowd, something he loves to feed off of when things are going his way.
Tiafoe is a -210 favorite, which doesn't give us a whole lot of bang for our buck. However, given the head-to-head and the fact that both players have been involved in multiple tiebreaks already at this tournament, it wouldn't be shocking to see this one go four or five sets.
Therefore, picking Frances Tiafoe wins the match and both players win a set (+136) is a way to back Tiafoe while getting more value.