Wimbledon Men's Final Betting Guide: Sunday 7/10/22
Perhaps the most revered of the four tennis Grand Slams, Wimbledon is finally here, and we have plenty of action across the draw that we can bet on at Tennis odds over the fortnight.
The stage is set for the men's final between Novak Djokovic and Nick Kyrgios. How should we bet the match?
Novak Djokovic vs. Nick Kyrgios
Djokovic Wins 3-1 Sets (+230)
Djokovic Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+114)
Over Total Sets 3.5 (-158)
Over Total Match Games 38.5 (-130)
Unsurprisingly, the six-time Wimbledon champion is a fairly significant favorite (-420) over a guy making his first Grand Slam final and didn't have to play a semifinal matchup due to a walkover.
And according to Tennis Abstract's data, perhaps the odds should weigh even more heavily in Djokovic's favor. The Serbian ranks 1st in surface-blended Elo rating on grass, and while Kyrgios is a deserving 13th, over 260 points separate the two, giving Djokovic an absurd 87.4% win probability.
But Kyrgios is an immensely talented player when he doesn't get in his own way, and he's only taken two losses on grass this season (12-2) and is now 36-17 on the surface in his career. The Australian is also one of the tour's best servers, owning the third-best ace rate (18.4%) in the top 50.
Additionally, Kyrgios is 2-0 head-to-head versus Djokovic, although it's worth noting that both matches came back in 2017 and were on hard courts.
For these reasons, this might not be as much of a cakewalk as Tennis Abstract is suggesting, and considering Djokovic has gone at least four sets in each of the last three matches against Cameron Norrie, Jannik Sinner, and Tim Van Rijthoven, it wouldn't be shocking to see Kyrgios also grab a set. When going by Elo ratings, Kyrgios is a tougher opponent on grass than any of those three players.
Therefore, rather than paying that steep price on the moneyline, we can get much better value picking Djokovic to win in four sets (+230). Alternatively, wagering on a Djokovic victory and both players winning a set (+114) will allow you to cash even if he wins it in five.
Along the same lines, you can take an even safer approach and bet the overs on either total match sets (-158) or games (-130), which opens the door to cashing even if Kyrgios is the surprise winner. It's hard to fathom any scenario where an all-time great like Djokovic falls to Kyrgios in straight sets, and it would be more than likely that the Australian would need to go the distance to complete the upset.