Wimbledon Women's Final Betting Guide: Saturday 7/9/22
Perhaps the most revered of the four tennis Grand Slams, Wimbledon is finally here, and we have plenty of action across the draw that we can bet on at Tennis odds over the fortnight.
The stage is set for the women's final between Elena Rybakina and Ons Jabeur. How should we bet the match?
Elena Rybakina vs. Ons Jabeur
Ons Jabeur Moneyline (-154)
Over Total Sets 2.5 (+112)
With her upset of Simona Halep in the semifinals, Rybakina is an unexpected Wimbledon finalist, and it's no surprise to see her as the underdog to Jabeur, the No. 2 player in the world.
Normally, that might lead to little value in backing the favorite, but this is actually a pretty good number to take the easy route and bet on Jabeur.
Per Tennis Abstract, Jabeur has the best surface-blended Elo rating among active players on grass, and there's over a 200-point gap between her and Rybakina. That grants Jabeur a 76.2% win probability despite her implied odds at -154 being just 60.6%.
Jabeur has yet to lose a game on grass all season (11-0), she's won 22 of her last 24 matches overall.
But this has been an impressive run by Rybakina in just her second-ever appearance in the Wimbledon main draw, and she's now 9-1 in her career at the All England Club.
Her grass Elo rating will surely go up after this tournament from wins over quality opponents like Halep, Alja Tomljanovic, Qinwen Zheng, and former US Open champ Bianca Andreescu.
Rybakina is also a scary opponent as one of the best servers on tour. Among the top 50 players, only Naomi Osaka and Karolina Pliskova have a higher ace rate than her (9.8%).
While it might not be enough to get past Jabeur, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising for Rybakina to take a set, making over 2.5 sets another worthwhile wager.
In their head-to-head, Jabeur is 2-1, but two of the three matches have gone three sets, and the third ended early due to Rybakina retiring.
The other advantage to betting the over is that you'll also cash if Rybakina pulls off the upset in three, and it's hard to see Jabeur losing in straight sets.