Wimbledon Men's Semifinals Betting Guide: Friday 7/8/22
Perhaps the most revered of the four tennis Grand Slams, Wimbledon is finally here, and we have plenty of action across the draw that we can bet on at Tennis odds over the fortnight.
Sadly, with Rafael Nadal withdrawing due to injury, we're left with just one men's semifinal on Friday. Which wagers stand out?
Novak Djokovic vs. Cameron Norrie
Novak Djokovic 3-0 Sets (-160)
Under 31.5 Total Match Games (-125)
Novak Djokovic is a whopping -2000 favorite to defeat Cameron Norrie, so finding betting value will be a little tricky in what should be a one-sided affair.
According to Tennis Abstract, Djokovic ranks first overall in surface-blended Elo rating, giving him a massive 302.5-point advantage over Norrie. That amounts to a 90.3% win probability for the 20-time Grand Slam champion.
The two players have only played once, but Djokovic won convincingly 6-2, 6-1 in a hard court match in 2021.
Norrie is no slouch as the No. 12 player in the world, but he's just 18-19 on grass in this career, and he entered the tournament just 1-2 on the surface this year. As a British player, he should get a boost from the home crowd, but he hasn't faced anyone close to Djokovic's caliber in his Wimbledon run, with all five opponents ranking outside the top 30.
On the other hand, Djokovic's six Wimbledon titles say all you need to know about his prowess on grass courts.
While the Serbian is coming off a tough five-set win over Jannik Sinner and dropped a set to lesser opponents in Tim Van Rijthoven and Soon Woo Kwon, everything points to him winning in straight sets, and -160 is a much more palatable way to side with the favorite.
Alternatively, taking under 31.5 total match games is a riskier move that assumes Djokovic wins in straight sets with relative ease (ex: 6-4, 6-4, 6-4), but you do get a little more bang for your buck at -125.
If you want to take a slightly different approach, note that backing Djokovic to win in four sets (3-1) is +260. Given that he hasn't been perfect in this tournament and will likely be against a pro-Norrie crowd, that could be another way to try and squeeze out more betting value.