Wimbledon Women's Semifinals Betting Guide: Thursday 7/7/22
Perhaps the most revered of the four tennis Grand Slams, Wimbledon is finally here, and we have plenty of action across the draw that we can bet on at Tennis odds over the fortnight.
Both women's semifinal matches will take place on Thursday. Which wagers offer the most value on Day 11?
Ons Jabeur vs. Tatjana Maria
Under 19.5 Games (-145)
Tajana Maria's run has been a great storyline, as she's now the oldest first-time Grand Slam semifinalist in the Open era at 34 years old.
But this also looks like a classic mismatch against Ons Jabeur. While this is Jabeur's first Grand Slam semifinal, she's the No. 2 player in the world and has a perfect 10-0 record on grass this season, winning a title at Berlin and dropping just one set so far in her Wimbledon run.
On the other hand, Maria is ranked outside the top 100 and has really had to battle to make it this far, going three sets in four of her five Wimbledon matches. Entering the tournament, she went just 5-4 in grass tournaments against mostly lower competition, and none of her wins came against opponents in the top 70.
Per Tennis Abstract's surface-blended Elo ratings, Jabeur has a massive 326-point advantage over Maria, giving her an 86.7% win probability.
It's no wonder Jabeur is an -820 favorite on Thursday.
But considering those odds, we can get more bang for our buck by being a bit bolder and betting the under instead.
Jabeur has won in straight sets across four of her five Wimbledon matches and gone under 19.5 games in three, with those unders coming against lower-ranked opponents like Maria in Diane Parry (77th), Katarzyna Kawa (132th), and Mirjam Brjoklund (125th).
Simona Halep vs. Elena Rybakina
Under 21.5 Games (-130)
Although Simona Halep has a tougher matchup than Jabeur, it's telling that she's actually the favorite to win it all on Tennis odds.
Outside of withdrawing from a semifinal match at Bad Homburg last month, the 2019 Wimbledon champion has won eight straight grass-court matches and is 11-1 on the surface this season. She's won all five of her Wimbledon matches in straight sets, which includes empathic victories over 4th-ranked Paula Padosa and 25th-ranked Amanda Anisimova in the last two rounds.
Elena Rybakina is another quality opponent, but she hasn't exactly been steamrolling the competition, needing to pull out several tiebreaks and 7-5 sets to make it to the quarterfinals before going three sets to take out Ajla Tomljanovic.
Furthermore, Tennis Abstract bumps down Rybakina's Elo rating on grass, which isn't a ringing endorsement against one of the toughest foes on the surface.
Overall, Halep's blended Elo rating is nearly 150 points higher than Rybakina's, giving her a sizable 70.0% chance of winning.
But as a -320 favorite, we aren't getting any value by backing Halep straight up, so opting for her to continue her run of dominance and betting the under is another way to get some action. In fact, Halep's won in under 21.5 games in six of her last seven grass matches.