Wimbledon Quarterfinals Betting Guide: Wednesday 7/6/22
Perhaps the most revered of the four tennis Grand Slams, Wimbledon is finally here, and we have plenty of action across the draw that we can bet on at Tennis odds over the fortnight.
The quarterfinals continue on Wednesday morning. Which players offer the most value on Day 10?
Taylor Fritz (+220) over Rafael Nadal
I completely get it if you don't want to bet against Rafael Nadal -- you know, the guy with the most men's singles Grand Slam titles ever -- but in terms of value, this isn't a bad spot to roll the dice with Taylor Fritz.
Grass projects as Nadal's worst surface, per Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, and when looking at the two competitors' surface-blended ratings, we see just a 45-point gap between them.
Additionally, Fritz is having a strong grass season, and he shouldn't be underestimated as the 14th-ranked player in the world.
After taking back-to-back grass-court losses at 's-Hertogenbosch and Queen's Club, he hasn't lost since, going on to win the Eastbourne title just before Wimbledon, which included victories over Alexander Bublik, Alex de Minaur, and Maxime Cressy -- all players now ranked in the top 50. Together with Wimbledon, Fritz now has eight straight wins on grass, and he's yet to drop a set in The Championships.
Fritz and Nadal are 1-1 in their head-to-head, too, with Fritz getting his win in straight sets earlier this year at the Indian Wells finals. In fact, he's one of just three players to defeat Nadal in 2022.
According to Tennis Abstract's model, Fritz has a 41.8% chance of pulling off the upset, which is a sizable step up from his 31.3% implied odds at +220.
Ajla Tomljanovic (+158) over Elena Rybakina
Among the underdogs on tomorrow's slate, Ajla Tomljanovic has the shortest odds, and we should like her chances against 23-year-old Elena Rybakina.
While Rybakina has a strong overall record on grass courts in her young career, she has only one career win on grass over a top-40 opponent, which is likely why it's her weakest surface, per Tennis Abstract. She entered Wimbledon just 1-2 on grass this season, and that included a bad loss to qualifier Lesia Tsurenko, a player ranked outside the top 100.
Rybakina hasn't dropped a set in the tournament, but that doesn't mean it's been smooth sailing to get this far. Across her eight sets, three have gone to a tiebreak and three others have gone 7-5.
Tomljanovic has generally found limited success at Grand Slams over her career, but she's had a late resurgence at Wimbledon, now making two straight quarterfinals. She entered Wimbledon with a 3-2 grass record this season, and she's overcome some quality opponents in her tournament run, defeating Jill Yeichmann (ranked 22nd), Barbora Krejcikova (14th), and Alize Cornet (37th).
Per Tennis Abstract, Rybakina has roughly a 35-point advantage over Tomljanovic in blended Elo rating. That gives Tomljanovic a 45.0% win probability, compared to her 38.8% implied odds.