Wimbledon Third Round Betting Guide: Saturday 7/2/22

Stefanos Tsitsipas hasn't enjoyed as much success at Wimbledon compared to other majors, and he draws a difficult opponent in Nick Kyrgios. Can he advance to the second week of play?

Perhaps the most revered of the four tennis Grand Slams, Wimbledon is finally here, and we have plenty of action across the draw that we can bet on at Tennis odds over the fortnight.

The third round continues on Saturday morning. Which players offer the most value on Day 6?

Stefanos Tsitsipas (+116) over Nick Kyrgios

Honestly, I did a double-take when I first saw this line, but Nick Kyrgios holds a 3-1 head-to-head advantage over Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Tsitsipas has had limited career success at Wimbledon. One of those Kyrgios wins came just last month, too, with the Australian defeating Tsitsipas in three sets at Halle.

But Tstsipas is the far more accomplished player -- he's ranked fifth in the world for a reason -- and he still has a strong 60% tour-level win percentage on grass despite it being his weakest surface. Further backing that point, even with Tstsipas getting bumped down on grass, his surface-blended Elo rating on Tennis Abstract is still 66 points higher than Kyrgios' mark.

And despite that recent loss to Kyrgios, Tstsipas performed well on grass entering the tournament, going 6-2 overall and defeating Roberto Bautista Agut for a singles title at Mallorca.

On the other hand, Kyrgios has long been known as a great talent, but he's always struggled to put it all together to make deep runs at Grand Slams. He's made the quarterfinals just twice in his career (once at Wimbledon), and the last time came way back in the 2015 Australian Open.

According to Tennis Abstract's model, Tsitsipas has a 61.8% win probability in this matchup, making him an enticing underdog pick.

Richard Gasquet (+220) over Botic van de Zandschulp

I'm a bit wary of backing 36-year-old Richard Gasquet again this week, but this is looking like a good number to take a chance on him against Botic van de Zandschulp.

Over his career, Gasquet has a 68% win percentage on grass courts, and while he hasn't done much in recent seasons at Wimbledon, his grass Elo rating remains significantly higher than van de Zandschulp's. That grants Gasquet a slight edge in blended Elo rating despite a massive rankings gap between the 69th- and 25th-ranked players on tour.

Although van de Zandschulp made a run to the semifinals at Queen's Club in June, he ultimately went just 3-3 on grass before Wimbledon and is just 8-7 overall on the surface including qualifying matches.

There's some risk in siding with a player who is way past his peak, but Gasquet's implied win odds are just 31.3% at this +220 price, whereas Tennis Abstract forecasts this as closer to a toss-up, giving the Frenchman a much better 52.2% chance of victory.

Ajla Tomljanovic (+108) over Barbora Krejcikova

Ajla Tomljanovic has a modest ranking (44th) compared to Barbora Krejcikova (14th), but it's Tomljanovic who has the advantage in blended Elo rating by just over 98 points.

Tomljanovic has a 57% career win percentage on grass courts, and she hasn't dropped a set in the tournament yet, breezing by 22nd-ranked Jil Teichmann (6-2, 6-3) and Catherine Harrison (6-2, 6-2).

Krejcikova has played well so far, but she came into Wimbledon with just a 4-6 record on grass, and it's far and away her worst Elo rating of the three surfaces. Her grass record has generally come against modest competition, too, with her best wins being over players ranked outside the top 50.

The +108 odds imply a 48.1% win probability for Tomljanovic, but Tennis Abstract thinks she has a 63.8% chance, presenting us with a buying opportunity here.