Wimbledon Second Round Betting Guide: Thursday 6/30/22
Perhaps the most revered of the four tennis grand slams, Wimbledon is finally here, and we have plenty of action across the draw that we can bet on at Tennis odds over the fortnight.
The second round continues bright and early on Thursday morning. Which players offer the most value on Day 4?
Brandon Nakashima (+136) over Denis Shapovalov
It feels a little unsettling to go against a player like Denis Shapovalov, who's ranked 16th in the world, but perhaps it's telling that he isn't a bigger favorite against someone outside the top 50.
The reason is likely due to Shapovalov's shaky form entering the tournament. He came in on a six-match losing streak, which included going 0-3 in grass matches. Outside of a loss to Casper Ruud, the other five losses all came against players ranked outside the top 30, too.
Additionally, this is his worst playing surface despite a strong run to the semifinals at Wimbledon last year. The young Canadian only has a 44% career win percentage on grass, and it's his only surface with a losing record.
Shapovalov didn't do himself any favors in the first round, too, needing to grind out a five-setter over nearly three-and-a-half hours to get past 62nd-ranked Arthur Rinderknech.
Brandon Nakashima is the more unproven player, but he's gotten plenty of reps on grass coming in. Including qualifying and Challenger-level matches, Nakashima went 7-3 on grass, and while it wasn't against the toughest competition, he secured wins over fellow Americans Tommy Paul, Sam Querrey (twice), and Steve Johnson.
Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings also view Nakashima quite favorably, ranking him 38th overall -- just ahead of Shapovalov at 39th. Nakashima also has the far better rating on grass, earning almost an 80-point edge.
Seeing as Shapovalov is the much more established player, we should be a little skeptical of those ratings, but everything still points to this being a more tightly-contested matchup than the 40 spots that separate these two in the ATP rankings.
Despite his underdog status, Tennis Abstract gives Nakashima a 57.2% chance of winning.
Richard Gasquet (+126) over Mackenzie McDonald
Richard Gasquet is no longer the top-10 caliber player of years past, but grass is historically his best surface (67% win percentage), and he's up against a beatable opponent in Mackenzie McDonald. While McDonald has the slightly higher ATP ranking, he actually has a losing record on the tour this season (14-16), whereas Gasquet is two matches above .500 (12-10).
While Gasquet didn't play any grass matches entering Wimbledon, McDonald didn't do anything of note in his tune-up tournaments, going 2-3 on the surface. We don't have nearly as large a sample for McDonald on grass, but he's just 8-7 in his career.
Gasquet and McDonald project as a close matchup in Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, ranking Gasquet 57th and McDonald 61st. And as their track records would suggest, Gasquet gets the edge on grass courts by 40 points, too.
Overall, Tennis Abstract forecasts a 54.8% win probability for Gasquet, which is much better than his 44.3% implied win odds at +126.
Viktorija Golubic (+172) over Barbora Krejcikova
Much like the Shapovalov matchup, we see a sizable gap in rankings between Viktorija Golubic (58th) and Barbora Krejcikova (13th), but this is another spot where this could be closer than most would expect.
Golubic has had an unremarkable singles career, but she has a winning record on grass (56%), and Wimbledon is easily her best grand slam, going 8-5 (61.5%). Her top Wimbledon performance came just last year, as well, making it all the way to the quarterfinals with wins over Danielle Collins, Madison Brengle, and Madison Keys.
Entering this year's tournament, Golubic bowed out in opening matches at Birmingham and Eastbourne, but she had a successful run at Nottingham, making it to the semifinals before losing to Alison Riske-Amritraj.
On the other hand, Krejcikova has very limited experience on grass courts, going just 5-6 over her career despite making it to the Round of 16 here in 2021. Her grass Elo rating is easily her worst of the three surfaces.
Golubic's odds imply a win probability of just 36.8%, but Tennis Abstract's model thinks she's being underestimated, projecting a 55.5% win rate.