Wimbledon Second Round Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/29/22
Perhaps the most revered of the four tennis grand slams, Wimbledon gets underway this week, and while all eyes will be on the much-anticipated return of Serena Williams and the ongoing battle between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic for even more major titles, we have plenty of action across the draw that we can bet on at Tennis odds over the fortnight.
The second round gets underway bright and early on Wednesday morning. Which players offer the most value on Day 3?
John Isner (+205) over Andy Murray
The top male U.S. player for much of his career, 37-year-old John Isner is getting up there in age, but the same could be said for a way-past-his-prime Andy Murray.
Isner may be only one win above .500 in 2022 (13-12), but he's still the most dangerous server on the planet, owning a ridiculous 24.5% ace rate that doubles or even triples the mark of most top players. For context, only six players in the top 50 have an ace rate of 15% or better. That alone makes Isner a threat in just about any match.
Although the American didn't play in any grass tune-up tournaments heading into Wimbledon, it's historically been his best surface over his career (66% win percentage).
All that being said, it's Murray who has enjoyed the more consistent 2022 campaign of the two (16-9), and he's coming off an excellent showing at Stuttgart, defeating dangerous players like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Nick Kyrgios on his way to the final before ultimately losing to Matteo Berrettini. In terms of recent form, he's deserving of being the favorite.
But when we put it all together, these two are neck and neck according to Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, with Murray ranking 27th and Isner 32nd over the last 52 weeks. And while Murray also has a slight edge on grass, Isner's surface-specific rating might be lower than it should be due to a small sample of grass matches in recent seasons.
Overall, Tennis Abstract's forecast gives Isner a 46.7% chance of winning, which is much better than his 32.8% implied odds at +205.
Adrian Mannarino (+126) over Tommy Paul
Despite a sizable gap in the ATP rankings between France's Adrian Mannarino (86th) and America's Tommy Paul (32nd), there's reason to believe that the former can pull off the upset.
Mannarino is a mediocre 14-14 on the year, but he recently had a solid run on grass at 's-Hertogenbosch, winning three matches to earn a spot in the semifinals before losing to Daniil Medvedev, the current No. 1 player in the world. While Mannarino didn't find the same success at Eastbourne, he lost to a capable opponent in Daniel Evans, who also benefited from playing in his home country.
Overall, the 33-year-old Frenchman has demonstrated that grass is his preferred surface over his career. He owns a 58.0% win percentage on grass courts, which is easily his highest mark and the only surface he's above .500.
Admittedly, Paul is no slouch, earning grass court victories over top-20 players Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov this spring. But the 25-year-old is still a fairly unproven player on the surface, owning just a 4-4 record at the ATP level.
According to Tennis Abstract, Mannarino has a 50.3% win probability over Paul, giving us nice value compared to his 44.3% implied odds.
Lesia Tsurenko (+122) over Anhelina Kalinina
This is another case where if you take a quick glance at the rankings, you would expect 25-year-old Anhelina Kalinina (34th) to usually win fairly comfortably over 33-year-old Lesia Tsurenko (101st).
But that gap is less pronounced in their Elo ratings, per Tennis Abstract, with Kalinina ranking 46th compared to 65th for Tsurenko. Furthermore, much of Kalinina's success has come on clay, and if we look at their grass-blended Elo ratings, it's actually Trusrenko who rates as the better player by over 80 points.
Both players come in on good form, submitting encouraging performances at Eastbourne, with each one making it to the quarterfinals before losing to ranked opponents. However, Kalinina's a far less experienced player on the surface, with under 10 tour-level grass-court matches in her young career.
Tennis Abstract's metrics believe Tsurenko should actually be the favored player on Wednesday (61.8% win probability), so this looks like a spot to take advantage.