Wimbledon First Round Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/28/22
Perhaps the most revered of the four tennis grand slams, Wimbledon gets underway this week, and while all eyes will be on the much-anticipated return of Serena Williams and the ongoing battle between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic for even more major titles, we have plenty of action across the draw that we can bet on at FanDuel Sportsbook over the fortnight.
First round matches continue on Tuesday morning. Which players offer the most value on Day 2?
Sloane Stephens (-134) over Qinwen Zheng
Sloane Stephens is coming off a strong run at the French Open, and despite losing her only match on grass at Bad Homburg last week, she should be able to take care of business against a less experienced Qinwen Zheng.
Stephens is just 10-9 this season, which included a five-match losing streak this spring, but she turned things around at Roland Garros, making it all the way to the quarterfinals before losing to eventual runner-up, Coco Gauff.
Despite her inconsistent play, Stephens ranks 52nd in Tennis Abstract's Elo rankings, and even with modest results at Wimbledon of late, her career win percentage on grass courts (57.1%) is nearly identical to hard courts (56.3%).
Zheng is 25-11 this season, but 10 of those wins came against lesser competition at Orlando W60 (ITF World Tennis Tour) and Valencia (WTA 125), so that should probably be taken with a grain of salt. Although she also had a strong run at the French, losing to champion Iga Swiatek in the Round of 16, she's since lost two straight on grass.
Zheng's overall Elo ranking is actually higher than Stephens' (42nd), but that mark takes a significant hit when playing on grass. Over three career grass matches, she's yet to win a single set. Zheng also struggles with double faults at times, with a career 8.7% double-fault rate on tour.
While -134 odds imply a 57.3% win probability for Stephens, Tennis Abstract forecasts a victory 68.8% of the time against Zheng, suggesting there's value in this spot. The -134 price implies win odds of just 57.3%.
Holger Rune (+114) over Marcos Giron
While Holger Rune remains unproven on grass, he's up to 22nd in Tennis Abstract's Elo rankings, making him worth the gamble at plus money against Marcos Giron, who ranks just 93rd.
Rune lost both grass matches entering The Championships, which isn't the most uplifting sign, but he added to his resume at the French Open, defeating ranked players Denis Shapovalov and Stefanos Tsitsipas on his way to the quarterfinals before bowing out to now sixth-ranked Casper Ruud.
On the other hand, Giron has a losing record on the ATP Tour in 2022 (10-18) and is just 2-3 on grass.
Despite Rune's unknown ability on grass, Tennis Abstract grants him a 57.0% win probability on Tuesday, making him an appealing wager at this +114 price.
Lukas Klein (+150) over Liam Broady
This isn't exactly must-see viewing between two guys ranked well outside the top 100, but there could be value in backing the less experienced Lukas Klein.
Klein made it through qualifying to make his first career grand slam, and he's mainly played on the ATP Challenger Tour this season, so there's a good reason why the 24-year-old is ranked 243rd.
But this is more about Liam Broady and his lack of success both this season and on grass in general. He's just 1-5 in Tour-level events in 2022, and he's just 3-10 on grass courts at this level over his career.
Both players fall outside the top 100 in Tennis Abstract's Elo rankings, but when factoring in the surface, this is close to a toss-up. Klein gets the slight edge (51.8%), giving him a potential value as the underdog.