Tawny Port Not a Worthy Longshot in Kentucky Derby
The 2022 Kentucky Derby is on May 7th with post time at 6:57 p.m. ET. Using TVG projections and Horse Racing Nation as a guide, here are the horse profiles for America’s biggest and most popular race.
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As always, check the program for racing information after the post position draw on May 2nd, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure and BRIS and Beyer speed figures, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
#18 Tawny Port
Morning Line Odds: 30/1
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Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr, Tawny Port was installed at 30/1 on the morning line odds, breaking from post No. 18. He won the Lexington Stakes on short rest to secure enough points and qualify for the Kentucky Derby. But he's in over his head against top contenders and favorites like Zandon, Epicenter, and Messier, who are highly regarded with have pari-mutuel wagering odds below 10/1.
Tawny Port does not possess enough speed to run with the leaders, or track them down. His best Beyer Speed Figure in five career starts is 90, and his best BRIS Speed Rating is 99 when he finished second two races back on the synthetic surface behind Tiz the Bomb in the Jeff Ruby Stakes.
History shows that 27 of the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners (90.0%) have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. And 18 of the past 22 Kentucky Derby winners (81.8%) had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 prior to the race.