Kentucky Derby Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 5/7/22
Starting at 10:30 a.m. EST, we have 14 races at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day, including seven graded stakes races. Using TVG and Horse Racing Nation as a Guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
My Prankster and Trademark
TVG Odds: 4/1 and 20/1
Race 7 is the $500K Pat Day Mile for 3-year-olds. The TVG and HRN data projects My Prankster (4/1) and Jack Christopher (3/1) to decide the race with longshot Trademark (20/1) a viable contender.
The race has higher payoff potential, and Trademark was on the Derby Trail previously and finished fifth in the Blue Grass behind Derby favorite Zandon. He has sharp works and top value cutting back in distance.
Jack Christopher is the best horse in the race based on last year’s performances. He enters off a 7-month layoff and will be the front-runner into modest fractions.
My Prankster will be sitting off the leaders can run well on a fast or off-track and is sitting on his best race.
Jackie’s Warrior, Race 10
TVG Odds: 5/2
Race 10 is the $750K Churchill Downs Stakes for older horses racing 7 furlongs. The HRN data projects Jackie’s Warrior (5/2) to win and turn the tables on Aloha West (7/2) from last year’s Breeders Cup.
Jackie’s Warrior holds a tremendous pace advantage, and his early pace figures tower over the field. Jockey Joel Rosario should ride him to victory for the fifth time in his last six graded stakes starts.
Reinvestment Risk (7/2) is a reliable board hitter while Prevalence (6/1) is one to include if the track comes up sloppy.
Mo Donegal and Charge It, Race 12
TVG Odds: 10/1 and 20/1
Race 12 is the 148th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby for 3-year-olds racing the classic 1 1/4 mile distance. A total of 20 runners are set to Run for the Roses in the $3 million race.
The top contenders, according to the TVG Derby Betting Guide are Epicenter (7/2), Zandon (3/1, Messier (8/1), Mo Donegal (10/1), Smile Happy (20/1), and Taiba (12/1), who has been taking more money leading up to the biggest race.
Simplification (20/1, Charge It (20/1), and Tiz the Bomb (30/1) are the big longshots with the best chance to cash in.
Check out the jockey profiles and more TVG Derby Day racing options and bet types when wagering on America's most popular race, the Kentucky Derby.
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