HORSE RACING

Barber Road Is a Kentucky Derby Longshot Despite a String of Strong Finishes

Jay Ginsbach  —  @FairwayJay May 6th, 2022
The 2022 Kentucky Derby is May 7th, and 20 of the top 3-year-olds will Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. Which horses should you bet on at TVG?

The 2022 Kentucky Derby is on May 7th with post time at 6:57 p.m. ET. Using TVG projections and Horse Racing Nation as a guide, here are the horse profiles for America’s biggest and most popular race.

New players, get your first win-type wager on a single horse in any race at any track risk-free up to $200 with TVG: Bet the Derby!

As always, check the program for racing information after the post position draw on May 2nd, and monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure and BRIS and Beyer speed figures, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

#14 Barber Road

Morning Line Odds: 30/1
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Trained by John Ortiz and ridden by jockey Reylu Gutierrez, Barber Road was installed at 30/1 on the morning line odds breaking from post No. 14. Barber Road is one of the most experienced horses in the Derby having raced eight times. He broke his maiden in his second start and then won an Allowance race.

Barber Road then finished second in his stakes debut at Churchill Downs and has finished second or third in four stakes races in 2022. That includes in his last race in a weaker edition of the Arkansas Derby when he came from way back to finish second behind Cyerberknife.

He flattened out a bit in the deeper stretch in his first race going 9 furlongs and appears that is his likely max distance to have a chance to win. The 1 1/4 mile Derby (10 furlongs) appears too much, and against this stronger field, his big longshot odds reflect that along with his speed ratings. Barber Road's string of finishing first, second, or third in seven straight races likely ends.

Barber Road falls short in meeting some key trends and respected metrics in horse racing when determining a contender or winner of the Kentucky Derby. His best Beyer Speed Figure is 88, and his best BRIS Speed Rating is 93.

History shows that 27 of the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners (90.0%) have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. Also, 18 of the past 22 Kentucky Derby winners (81.8%) had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 prior to the race.