HORSE RACING

Can Longshot Classic Causeway Reemerge for the Kentucky Derby?

Jay Ginsbach  —  @FairwayJay May 6th, 2022
The 2022 Kentucky Derby is May 7th, and 20 of the top 3-year-olds will Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. Which horses should you bet on at TVG?

The 2022 Kentucky Derby is on May 7th with post time at 6:57 p.m. ET. Using TVG projections and Horse Racing Nation as a guide, here are the horse profiles for America’s biggest and most popular race.

New players, get your first win-type wager on a single horse in any race at any track risk-free up to $200 with TVG: Bet the Derby!

As always, check the program for racing information after the post position draw on May 2nd, and monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure and BRIS and Beyer speed figures, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

#17 Classic Causeway

Morning Line Odds: 30/1
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Trained by Brian Lynch and ridden by jockey Julien Leparoux, Classic Causeway was installed at 30/1 on the morning line odds breaking from post No. 17. No horse has ever won the Derby from post No. 17.

Classic Causeway will try to reemerge in the Derby after finishing last of 11 in the recent Florida Derby. He'll be one of the pace pressers or front runners with early speed as he was when leading the Florida Derby for the opening half mild before retreating. His trainer suspects Classic Causeway might have displaced his palate in his last race, and they will equip the horse with a dropped noseband bridle and a tongue tie for the Derby.

In February and March, Classic Causeway won a pair of graded stakes in the Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby, and he was on his way to being one of the Derby favorites until his Florida Derby performance.

Classic Causeway's best Beyer Speed Figure of 90 does not meet proven criteria in determining a Derby contender and winner. His BRIS Speed Ratings are not available.

History shows that 27 of the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners (90.0%) have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. Also, 18 of the past 22 Kentucky Derby winners (81.8%) had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 prior to the race.