HORSE RACING

Keep It Simple: Simplification Is the Longshot Pick You Want

Jay Ginsbach  —  @FairwayJay May 4th, 2022
The 2022 Kentucky Derby is May 7th, and 20 of the top 3-year-olds will Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. Which horses should you bet on at TVG?

The 2022 Kentucky Derby is on May 7th with post time at 6:57 p.m. ET. Using TVG projections and Horse Racing Nation as a guide, here are the horse profiles for America’s biggest and most popular race.

New players, get your first win-type wager on a single horse in any race at any track risk-free for up to $200 with TVG: Bet the Derby!

As always, check the program for racing information after the post position draw on May 2nd, and monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure and BRIS and Beyer speed figures, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for the track, distances, and conditions.)

#13 Simplification

Morning Line Odds: 20/1
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Trained by Antonio Sano and ridden by jockey Jose Ortiz, Simplification was installed at 20/1 on the morning line odds breaking from post No. 13 just outside of Taiba.

If four stakes start, Simplification has hit the board in all four races with two wins. That includes the Fountain of Youth when he came from off-the-pace to circle wide and take command in the stretch to win by 3 1/2 lengths as the favorite. Then in the Florida Derby, Simplification pressed the pace but was not able to hold up as White Abarrio and Charge It passed him. This year's Florida Derby was not as strong and ranks maybe as the third or fourth-best Derby prep route race.

Simplification appears more fit for one-turn races, like when he won the Mucho Man Stakes on the front end of New Year's Day with his best Equibase Speed Figure of 98.

With many other pace pressers in the Derby, it's far less likely Simplification will be able to carry his speed far enough to outlast more quality runners and the leading contenders and favorites with more speed like Zandon and Epicenter,

Simplification comes up short of some key trends and respected metrics in horse racing when determining a contender or winner of the Kentucky Derby. While his best Beyer Speed Figure of 96 fits key criteria in determining a Derby winner, his best BRIS Speed Rating of 95 is short for that win consideration.

History shows that 27 of the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners (90.0%) have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. Also, 18 of the past 22 Kentucky Derby winners (81.8%) had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 prior to the race.