With His Odds You Will Smile Happy Too in the Kentucky Derby
The 2022 Kentucky Derby is on May 7th with post time at 6:57 p.m. ET. Using TVG projections and Horse Racing Nation as a guide, here are the horse profiles for America’s biggest and most popular race.
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As always, check the program for racing information after the post position draw on May 2nd, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure and BRIS and Beyer speed figures, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
#5 Smile Happy
Morning Line Odds: 20/1
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Trained by Kenny McPeek and ridden by jockey Corey Lenerie, Smile Happy was installed at 20/1 on the morning line odds, breaking from post No. 5. Smile Happy was once expected to be among the leading contenders by the opening pari-mutuel odds like like favorites Zandon and Epicenter.
Smile Happy was the 2/1 favorite in February when he rallied to finish second behind front-running winner Epicenter and ahead of third-place finisher Zandon.
Then, in last month's Blue Grass Stakes, Smile Happy was the 2/1 favorite again, and he got the lead in the stretch only to be overtaken by winner Zandon.
Smile Happy has built the foundation for the Derby, and he won over the Churchill Downs track last November in the highly-regarded Kentucky Jockey Club. He posted a 100 Equibase Speed Figure in just his second start that day and hit 104 in the Blue Grass.
Smile Happy definitely offers top value, and he'll sit mid-pack and handle the added ground. Smile Happy provides longshot betters a real chance to cash in on the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers.
He also meets some key trends and respected metrics in horse racing when determining a contender or winner of the Kentucky Derby. His best BRIS Speed Rating is at 101, but he falls slightly short with his Beyer Speed Figure of 94. Last year's Derby winner Medina Spirit came up just short in his BRIS Speed Rating. Medina Spirit was eventually disqualified as the Derby winner for failing a post-race drug test.
History shows that 27 of the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners (90.0%) have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. And 18 of the past 22 Kentucky Derby winners (81.8%) had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 prior to the race.
