HORSE RACING

White Abarrio Is the Pick If You Want To Bet on the Gray

Jay Ginsbach  —  @FairwayJay May 4th, 2022
The 2022 Kentucky Derby is May 7th, and 20 of the top 3-year-olds will Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. Which horses should you bet on at TVG?

The 2022 Kentucky Derby is on May 7th with post time at 6:57 p.m. ET. Using TVG projections and Horse Racing Nation as a guide, here are the horse profiles for America’s biggest and most popular race.

New players, get your first win-type wager on a single horse in any race at any track risk-free up to $200 with TVG: Bet the Derby!

As always, check the program for racing information after the post position draw on May 2nd, and monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure and BRIS and Beyer speed figures, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

#15 White Abarrio

Morning Line Odds: 10/1
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Trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr. and ridden by jockey Tyler Gafflione, White Abarrio is a galloping gray son of Race Day, who also sired Tapit. White Abarrio has been climbing the ranks as a Derby contender and is 10/1 on the morning line odds breaking from post No. 15. He's moved up to join top Derby favorites Zandon, Epicenter, and Messier, who all have pari-mutuel wagering odds of 10/1 or better.

White Abarrio is 4-for-5, including winning both his Derby preps in 2022. He did that while battling a couple of bouts of a fever-related illness. After finishing 3rd in last fall's stronger running of the Kentucky Jockey Club, White Abbario broke through in the Holy Bull for his first stakes win, going away over Simplification and Mo Donegal. He posted his best Equibase Speed Figure yet in that 4 1/2 length victory at 103, and then went on to win the Florida Derby over Charge It and favorite Simplification.

White Abarrio has shown the ability to succeed under any pace scenario, and his career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 97 fits a key trend and respected metric in horse racing when determining a contender or winner of the Kentucky Derby. But his best BRIS Speed Rating of 97 falls just short of another metric and is below the leading Derby favorites.

History shows that 27 of the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners (90.0%) have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. And 18 of the past 22 Kentucky Derby winners (81.8%) had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 prior to the race.