Check Out Why the Experts Are Picking Epicenter
The 2022 Kentucky Derby is on May 7th with post time at 6:57 p.m. ET. Using TVG projections and Horse Racing Nation as a guide, here are the horse profiles for America’s biggest and most popular race.
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As always, check the program for racing information after the post position draw, and odds are announced for the Kentucky Derby on Monday, May 2nd. Also, monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure and BRIS and Beyer speed figures, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
#3 Epicenter
Morning Line Odds: 7/2
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Trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by jockey Joel Rosario, Epicenter enters the Kentucky Derby as one of the top favorites.
He finished on top of the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard having most recently won the 1 3/16 miles Louisiana Derby as the even money favorite ahead of Zozos. He tracked a slower pace and unleashed a very strong BRIS Late Pace figure of 106. Epicenter also won his previous race wire-to-wire in front of two other leading Derby contenders in Smile Happy and Zandon.
Epicenter has won 4-of-6 starts including breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs last November. He’s a pace presser with some tactical speed and will be forced to run faster fractions as he did when finishing runner-up in the Lecomte Stakes.
Epicenter is a son of Not This Time, and he’ll get bet as one of the top favorites.
Epicenter does meet some key trends and respected metrics in horse racing when determining a contender or winner of the Kentucky Derby. His best Beyer speed figure is tops in the field at 102, and his BRIS is 101 with a Final Fraction of 36.3 in his last race also fits some key criteria.
History shows that 27 of the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners (90.0%) have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. And 18 of the past 22 Kentucky Derby winners (81.8%) had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 prior to the race.
