Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 4/23/22
Starting at 1:00 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Keeneland. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets on FanDuel Racing.
As always, check the program for racing information and scratches and changes. Also, watch the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).
Catwings and Casa de Goat, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 5/2
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Race 6 is a high-end Maiden Special Weight for 3-year-old fillies racing 7 furlongs. The favorite on the rail Casa de Goat (5/2) will get action with top rider Flavien Prat and slimy EPO trainer Brad Cox. The numberFire algorithm however projects Catwings (3/1) to win ahead of Faith’s Reward (3/1) and Please Be Kind (8/1).
Catwings made significant strides in her fourth start and 2022 debut last month. She stalked the favorite and finished second in a 6 furlong sprint with her best speed figure (91).
But the homebread Faith's Reward is capable off a pair of tough competition maiden races, and she could get to the lead and hold on this time. Trainer Steve Asmussen changes jockey’s to underrated Gerardo Corrales, who is good with sprinters.
Warrant and Scalding, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 2/1 and 5/1
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Race 8 is the $300,000, Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes for older horses going 1 1/8 miles. The numberFire data projects the favorite Warrant (2/1) to win ahead of Mighty Heart (9/2) and Dynamic One (4/1). But Scandling (3/1) has won three in a row and is one to include in your exacta and trifecta wagers.
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Warrant has finished in-the-money in all nine starts for trainer Brad Cox. That includes four straight graded stakes and he just missed by a head last month going longer in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Top jockey Flavien Prat rides again, and Guaranteed Tip Sheet (GTS) supports Warrant and notes he posted his fastest speed figure (106) last race when barely beaten by the proven favorite,
Two Emmys and Bemma’s Boy, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/2 and 5/1
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Race 9 is the $350,000, Grade 2 Elkorn Stakes for older horses going 1 ½ miles on the turf. This is a strong edition of the race with many capable contenders. The numberFire data projects the order of finish Two Emmys (7/2) to win ahead of the favorite Channel Maker (2/1) with leading jockey Luis Saez riding. Another Mystery (6/1) and Bemma’s Boy (5/1) are also one’s to consider. Phantom Currency is scratched.
Two Emmys will be forwardly placed in a field with some early pace, per Guaranteed Tip Sheet. He won last month at this distance on the front end, and has finished 1st or 2nd in five of his last six graded stakes starts the past 13 months.
Bemma’s has two wins and a runner-up finish in three starts at the distance over Keeneland’s turf. He did not race in 2021, but this deep router has a pair of runner-up finishes this year in Allowance company and EPO trainer Mike Maker has him ready for the stretch out.
Channel Maker ran the top, last pace speed figure, per GTS, but has yet to win in three starts at Keeneland.
