Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 4/16/22
Starting at 1:00 p.m. EST, we have 11 races at Keeneland. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets on FanDuel Racing.
As always, check the program for racing information and scratches and changes. Also, watch the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).
Campanelle and Headline Hunter , Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 30/1
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Race 8 is the $200,000 Giants Causeway Stakes for fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ mile on the turf. A full field of 14 runners take to the turf with a number of need the lead types. The numberFire algorithm projects order of finish as Campanelle (5/2), Headline Hunter (30/1) and Change of Control (4/1).
European import Campanelle (IRE) makes her 2022 debut off a 6 month layoff. She has won twice at this distance, and finished third in a Grace 3 sprint as the favorite in her last race over this turf track.
Headline Hunter has the top early pace numbers in the field at the distance, according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet (GTS).
Elle Z (3/1) has won 3-straight races this year at Fair Grounds including the top, last race speed figure (102) at this distance on the turf last month, according to GTS.
In Due Time and Strava, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 20/1
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Race 9 is the $400,000, Grade 3 Lexington Stakes for 3-year-olds and the last race on the Kentucky Derby Trail to earn qualifying points. The numberFire data projects Ethereal Road (10/1) to pull the upset in the 11 horse field over In Due Time (3/1 and Tawny Port (5/2). Guaranteed Tip Sheet also projects In Due Time, Ethereal Road and longshot Strava (20/1) to finish in-the-money.
In Due Time came from off the pace to finish second behind the favorite in the Fountain of Youth last month; another major Kentucky Derby points race.
Tawny Port has run 3 of his 4 starts on a synthetic surface, and his only race on dirt was a fifth place finish at long odds in the Risen Star, another Championship Series Derby points race. Florent Geroux rides for EPO trainer Brad Cox.
Ethereal Road finished runner-up in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and then last weekend, he raced wide with traffic trouble finishing 7th in the Blue Grass Stakes over the Keeneland track. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lucas brings him right back with a jockey change to Victor Espinoza looking for a win to give him enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.
Strava is an overlay in his stakes debut. He finished third last race at 7/2 odds behind eventual Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife. Top jockey Tyler Gaffalione rides him again after he was aboard last race for his fastest speed figure (90), and an improved run can result in a solid payoff at 20/1 odds on the morning line.
Major General (4/1) is also a threat with leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding for top trainer Todd Pletcher. He’s 2-for-3 having won a minor Derby prep, but was never a factor and weak in his return to the track last month for his 2022 debut in the Tampa Bay Derby. Bounce back and better effort expected with an exacta or trifecta inclusion in wagering.
Regal Glory and Shantisara and, Race 10
FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/5 and 6/5
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Race 10 is the $500,000, Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes for older fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Trainer Chad Brown has the two favorites, and the numberFire data projects them to finish 1-2 with Shantisara (6/5) outdueling Regal Glory (7/5) in the six horse field.
Shantisara has been off since winning the longer Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth at Keeneland last October by 5-lengths. Top West Coast rider Flavien Prat returns to ride her again.
Regal Glory has run six ultra, high quality races in her last seven starts, according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet. The Magnificent mare won a Grade 3 race in January flying from off the pace, and finished a close second over this turf track last October with her best-ever speed figure (111). Regular rider Jose Ortiz has ridden her to 5 wins in her last 7 starts plus a runner-up finish.
