​Tampa Bay Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 3/12/22

Starting at 12:15 p.m. EST, we have 12 races at Tampa Bay Downs. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

Bleecker Street and Lady Speightspeare, Race 7

FanDuel Racing Odds: 2/1 and 5/2

Race 7 is the $2250,000 Hillsborough Stakes for older fillies and mares, and it's going 1 1/8 miles on the turf.

Guaranteed Tip Sheet projects Lady Speightspeare (3/2) to be on or near the lead and fire a good late run, with Bleecker Street (2/1) a top challenger to win and top pick of numberFire.

Bleeker Streak is undefeated in four races, including two outings at Tampa.

Ambitieuse and Dolce Zel, Race 9

FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 5/1

Race 9 is the $200,000 Grade 3 Florida Oaks for three-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. The numberFire algorithm shows Ambitieuse (3/1) on top of Alittleloveandluck (7/2) with Dolce Zel (5/1) also hitting the board.

Guaranteed Tip Sheet notes there is not a lot of early speed in this race, and Spicer (9/2) could control the tempo all the way around the track with Jose Ortiz riding for trainer Chad Brown.

Ambitieuse just missed at this distance in a Grade 3 race last month at Gulfstream. He posted his best speed figure (90) in his third start and can move forward again.

Dolce Zel comes in from France off a win and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., who is riding for Chad Brown. Both of Brown's entries are using first-time Lasix. The Super Screener by Horse Racing Nation (HRN) notes Dolce Zel is bred to run all day and prefers firmer turf.

Mrs. Barbara (6/1) on the rail offers top value, according to HRN, and she should move forward off of a layoff for top trainer Mark Casse.

Classic Causeway and Shipsational, Race 11

FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/5 and 5/1

Race 11 is the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby for three-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby Trail, offering points (50-20-10-5) to the top-four finishers. The 1 1/16-mile Grace 2 race drew 12 entries, and numberFire projects heavy favorite Classic Causeway (8/5) to win followed by Giant Game (10/1) and Shipsational (5/1).

The Tampa Bay Derby has two speed horses up front in Classic Causeway with top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding and longshot Trademark (30/1).

HRN notes Classic Causeway had an impressive front-running 3 3/4-length win last month over this track in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Classic Causeway posted a solid 104 speed figure that day, and he has pacesetting speed but is versatile with his running style.

Shipsational is a viable contender with value who came from off the pace to finish second in the aforementioned Sam F. Davis after a poor break.

Strike Hard (8/1) with top jockey Luis Saez was scratched, and so was Money Supply (10/1).