Belmont Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 9/18/21
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Moretti and Lone Rock, Race 4
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 1/2
Race 4 is the $300K Grand Prix American Jockey Club Invitational, and six entries will run the marathon at 1 5/8 miles. The heavy favorite on FanDuel Racing is Lone Rock (1/2). Conditioned by EPO trainer Robertino Diodoro, Lone Rock has won four straight races, including at Belmont in June, and seven of his last eight over the past year.
But numberFire’s data has the favorite finishing second behind Moretti (5/2), who is dropping in class and has hit the board in 3-of-4 at Belmont. Chris and Dave (12/1) has some of the best late-run numbers, according to Horse Racing Radar.
Higher Truth and Creative Flair, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 7/2
Race 9 is the $700K Jockey Club Oaks Invitational for three-year-old fillies at 1 3/8 miles on the inner turf. The numberFire algorithm projects the top-three finishers as Higher Truth (3/1), Harajuku (4/1) and Creative Flair (7/2).
Guaranteed Tip Sheet likes those three as main contenders. Harajuku has faced some of Europe’s top females and fits well. Creative Flair should like the extra distance, and she’s hit the board in all five starts this year with a pair of wins. She finished a close third in her U.S. debut last month. Higher Truth has the top pedigree for the distance with leading jockey Jose Ortiz riding for EPO trainer Chad Brown.
Bolshoi Ballet and Yibir, Race 10
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 2/1
Race 10 is the $1 million Jockey Club Derby Invitational for 3-year-olds at 1 1/2 miles on the turf.
numberFire's model projects Bolshoi Ballet (5/2) to set the slower pace and win a close race in front of Yibir (2/1), who has a track record on a good surface and should like the firm course.
Soldier Rising (5/2) is a contender and ran the highest last-race speed figure. He makes his second start on U.S. soil, and Guaranteed Tip Sheet also rates these three to determine the winner with a slight edge to the favorite, Yibir.