Del Mar Horse Racing Picks for Sunday 8/29/21
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Bella Vita, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2
Races 6, 7 and 8 at Del Mar are mandatory races for the Final Table participants at the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) in Las Vegas. Race 7 is an Allowance race for fillies and mares at 6 1/2 furlongs.
Bella Vita (5/2) with top jockey Flavien Prat looks tough based on recent form and speed figures against top company. numberFire's model agrees and makes Bella Vita the top choice in front of Melting Snow (4/1),and Big Sweep (3/1).
Big Sweep is a two-time Cal-bred stakes winner who deadheated with the top choice two starts back, but her speed fell off as the favorite last time out. Melting Snow is a five-time winner who is moving up in class to face older horses.
Keep Dancing, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 4/1
Race 8 is an Allowance race for state-bred fillies and mares at 1 mile on the turf. The numberFire algorithm likes She’s A Dime (8/1), Keep Dancing (4/1) and Nice Ice (5/1) in that order.
Keep Dancing finished a very close third by a head last race behind runner-up Big Clare (7/2), who breaks from the rail with leading jockey Flavien Prat riding for EPO trainer Phil D’Amato at a preferred distance. But Keep Dancing can turn the tables, as she ran faster each successive quarter-mile last race and can finish on top this trip.
She’s a Dime will likely be running on the lead but could be challenged by this distance on the turf. Nice Ice has to draw into the field from the also-eligible list.
Rock Your World, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/5
Race 9 is the $100K Shared Belief Stakes for three-year-olds, and it's going 1 mile. Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit (7/5) is the slight favorite, but numberFire’s model calls for top challenger Rock Your World (8/5) to be up to task with Umberto Rispoli riding and likely finishing strong on the front end for the win.
Rock Your World beat Medina Spirit convincingly back in April in the Santa Anita Derby, and The Great One (6/1) was also a well beaten seventh-place finisher.