Del Mar Horse Racing Picks for Sunday 8/15/21
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
I Know Cash Flow and Thirsty Chapo, Race 2
FanDuel Racing Odds: 4/1 and 5/2
Race 2 is a Maiden Special Weight for two-year-old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs. numberFire's algorithm projects I Know Cash Flow (4/1) to get to the front ahead of the favorite, Sauls Call (9/5).
Sauls Call stands out on figures and drops to this state-bred race after chasing good company in his first three starts.
I Know Cash Flow makes his debut for the meet's leading trainer, Peter Miller, and top jockey Juan Hernandez rides.
Thirsty Chapo (5/2) was runner-up in both of her starts, and Guaranteed Tip Sheet says that improved speed makes her a win contender.
Hemmerle and Very Scary, Race 5
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 3/1
Race 5 is is a Maiden Special Weight for juvenile fillies at 1 mile on the turf. These two-year-olds are learning their way, and the numberFire model projects Hemmerle (5/2) and Very Scary (3/1) to determine the winner along with Helen’s Well (4/1).
Hemmerle is a daughter of Tapit, and she makes her debut with the meet's top jockey Flavien Prat, riding. Respected trainer Richard Mandella sends her a mile to begin her career.
Very Scary races back quickly off a third-place finish two weeks ago. She ran better than her line and has a pair of solid bullets on the work tab.
Helens Well (4/1) makes her U.S. debut, and top turf jockey Umberto Rispoli is summoned to ride for EPO trainer Phil D’Amato. Include Helens Well in exacta and trifecta wagering.
Warren’s Showtime and Leggs Galore, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/5 and 5/2
Race 7 is the $150K Solana Beach Stakes for state-bred fillies and mares at 1 mile on the turf. The FanDuel Racing odds imply favorite Warren's Showtime (9/5) has a 40% probability to win, and numberFire's model shows the order of finish as Warren's Showtime, Sedamar (4/1) and Leggs Galore (5/2).
Warren’s Showtime has finished in the money in 12 straight starts and has hit the board in 12-of-13 at the distance. She’s the class of the field and enters off a Grade 3 win in June when she chased down the frontrunning Leggs Galore. Warren’s Showtime has a closing style that matches the season-long course profile, per West Coast Handicapping Report.
Horse Racing Radar notes that Leggs Galore is 2-for-2 at Del Mar and has won at this distance.
Pulpit Rider was an upset winner of this race last year by a nose over Sedamar. If Pulpit Rider can repeat that speed and performance and gets enough pace up front, then she’ll likely be flying at the end with the favorite to challenge at the wire.