Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday 8/12/21

Starting at 1:05 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Saratoga. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets to make at FanDuel Racing.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

Mrs. Orb, Race 3

FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/5

Race 3 is the $100K Saratoga Dew Handicap for state-bred fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. numberFire's data projects Maiden Beauty (4/1) to beat favorite Mrs. Orb (6/5) and Simply Ravishing (7/2).

Horse Racing Radar notes Mrs. Orb ran the top last-race speed figure (93) in her off-the-pace 1 1/16-mile win as favorite last month at Pimlico. Espresso Shot (5/2) finished behind Mrs. Orb twice previously but still has better back class than Simply Ravishing or Maiden Beauty (4/1), according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet. Maiden Beauty has two wins and is 5-for-5 in the money this year but makes her first stakes start in two years.

Pimenova and Skyward Princess, Race 6

FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/2 and 5/2

Race 6 is a Maiden Special Weight for state-bred two-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. numberFire's algorithm projects the in-the-money finishers as Skyward Princess (5/2), Adversity (6/1) and Makin’ My Move (9/2), the latter of whom will run only if the race is moved to the main dirt track.

Skyward Princess makes his career debut and is ridden by leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. for leading trainer Chad Brown. Cricket West (5/1) also makes his debut and had his fastest 4-furlong training work last week. Pimenova (7/2) has an even faster 4-furlong breeze on his worktab recently, and with top jockey Luis Saez summoned to ride, Pimenova is a top contender, according to FanDuel Racing odds and probability.

Fractorzation and Athena Dancer, Race 9

FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/2 and 8/1

Race 9 is an Allowance sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf for state-bred fillies and mares. numberFire's top pick is the Beautiful Karen (9/5) -- but only if the race is moved off the turf. Uncle’s Gem (2/1) likely goes as the favorite with Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding after breaking her maiden over this course and distance last time out.

But Fractorzation (9/2) with Jose Ortiz riding gets the nod with a sharp recent work in place following a fourth-place finish and improved speed figure last race. She previously got caught in too fast of fractions and now cuts back in distance with controlling speed and a better race fit.

Athena Dancer (8/1) can also move forward in her 2021 debut.