Del Mar Horse Racing Picks for Thursday 7/29/21
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Scotish Star, Race 2
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/5
Race 2 is an Allowance Optional Claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting 6 furlongs. The favorite, Scotish Star (9/5), makes her U.S. debut after winning her first two starts easily last year in Argentina. She’s been off for 10 months but is training well. Her American debut has been delayed, but she should fire if she takes to the track. Leading jockey Flavien Prat rides for Hall-of-Fame trainer Richard Mandella, and Prat has won at a 29% clip with 63% in the money to lead all riders at Del Mar.
The numberFire data projects Acting Out (4/1) to win running on the lead. She returns to dirt off a turf race. She also won on the turf late last year at Del Mar, but trainer Art Sherman has spotted her here off more than two months of racing.
Red Storm Risen and First Premio, Race 4
FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/2 and 3/1
Race 4 is a tough call on the turf with nine runners going 1 mile. This Allowance Optional Claiming race has a number of EPO trainers, including Phil D’Amato for numberFire's second choice, Red Storm Risen (7/2). He has speed and versatility and has finished runner-up four times in 10 starts, including three times this year. That includes a one-mile race last time out as the favorite when the winner came back to win again. A bullet workout last week has him ready to challenge against this group.
numberFire's top pick is First Premio (3/1) with top turf rider Umberto Rispoli taking the call after trainer Jeff Mullins claimed him last race at Churchill Downs. The six-year-old has faced stakes competition, and while no longer his best, he fits well here with the ship-and-win bonus incentive in place.
Irish Heat Wave (4/1) also fits well for EPO leading trainer Peter Miller with top jockey Prat riding. Blameless (4/1) is also interesting with good form at Gulfstream this year and shipped in for EPO trainer Mike Maker.
American Bourbon, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1
Race 6 is a Claiming race for three-year-old fillies going 1 mile on the turf. numberFire's model projects St Helena (5/1) to break through off her runner-up finish last month when going longer at 1 1/8 miles. The cut back will likely have her chasing Guaranteed Tip Sheet’s best bet, American Bourbon (3/1), who has Prat riding.
American Bourbon was sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. She’s won two of her three starts on the turf since April up north at Golden Gate and also finished second by a nose. She has the speed to break up front from the outside post and has a bullet work this week at Del Mar.