Del Mar Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 7/24/21
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Dance to the Music and Brimage, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 15/1
Race 7 is a Maiden Special Weight for two-year-old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs. This is the deepest field of maiden two-year-old fillies in Southern California this year. numberFire's data believes Mirasol (3/1) commands respect, although her trainer Bob Baffert does not. Mirasol is by first-crop sire Arrogate is and the projected winner for numberFire. numberFire's model also gives Dance to the Music (3/1) and Honor It (5/2) a solid shot to win.
Dance to the Music was a $575K purchase, and she’s been working well since shipping West. Honor It has Flavien Prat in the saddle for her debut. Brimage (15/1) is a longshot who could surprise, according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet. She has a race under her belt and finished runner-up as the favorite at Churchill Downs. Leading jockey Umberto Rispoli rides.
Smooth Like Strait and Count Again, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/5 and 5/1
Race 8 is the $250K Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on the turf. Leading jockeys Umberto Rispoli and Flavien Prat ride the two favorites -- Smooth Like Strait (9/5) and United (5/2). They are the two top grass males in California, and the numberFire projects those two to decide the race with an edge to United. EPO trainer Phil D’Amato has a pair of runners in Count Again (5/1) and Say the Word (3/1), with Guaranteed Tip Sheet giving Count again a shot at the upset.
United won this race last year and is 2-for-2 at this distance at Del Mar, according to Horse Racing Radar. He’s won five graded stakes and posted a strong recent morning work. Smooth Like Strait has also won five graded stakes races, including one this year, and just missed in two others. He will likely dictate the pace up front and try to carry the distance. Guaranteed Tip Sheet adds that Count Again has the best late-pace numbers and should be moving well late.
Going Global, Race 10
FanDuel Racing Odds: 4/5
Race 10 is the $200K San Clemente Stakes for three-year-old fillies going 1 mile on the turf. numberFire's algorithm likes the favorite, Going Global (4/5), to cross the finish line first in front of Madone (4/1).
Flavien Prat rides Going Global, who ran the top last-race speed figure by a wide margin, according to Horse Racing Radar. She has won four stakes and is consistently the fastest finisher, running faster each recent start. Madone has beaten many of the top contenders in this race other than Going Global. Closing Remarks was scratched.