Del Mar Horse Racing Picks for Friday 7/23/21
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Bold Endeavor and Order and Law, Race 4
FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/5 and 4/1
Race 4 is an Allowance Optional Claiming race at 1 mile. Guaranteed Tip Sheet and numberFire's data says favorite Bold Endeavor (8/5) will break through off four straight runner-up finishes since March. Horse Racing Radar notes he’s finished first or second in six of his last seven starts, and he has a pair of wins over the Del Mar dirt with tactical speed to win up front or from off the pace.
Leading jockey Flavien Prat rides Azul Coast (6/1) for trainer Bob Baffert. Family Biz (7/2) makes his California debut for EPO trainer Peter Miller and is the projected runner-up, according to numberFire’s data. His speed figures are fast enough for this level, but he prefers one-turn races and this is two turns. Order and Law (4/1) is also projected to hit the board. He’s won 3-of-4 at this level on turf and dirt and should set the pace with a good break from the rail.
Closing Remarks and Eddie’s New Dream, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 5/1
Race 7 is the 175K Fleet Treat Stakes for state bred three-year-old fillies going 7 furlongs. The key entrants and favorites drew poorly on the inside with Fi Fi Pharoah (5/2) on the rail next to Closing Remarks (3/1).
numberFire's algorithm projects Closing Remarks to win and Fi Fi Pharoah to hit the board after a pair of recent wins, including a route stakes last month. Horse Racing Radar notes that Closing Remarks is the most accomplished filly in the field. She finished runner-up in both her recent stakes races on the turf and now tries dirt for the first time in eight starts. FanDuel Racing odds suggest a 28% win probability for Closing Remarks.
Eddie's New Dream (5/1) is a contender and preferred pick of Guaranteed Tip Sheet. numberFire projects a runner-up finish. She has five quality starts in five races and has hit the board in all five starts with one win and three runner-up finishes. Her last start was a pace-pressing second behind Fi Fi Pharoah. She strings three races together and has a bullet work recently.
I’m So Anna (6/1) breaks from the outside No. 9 post while Respectively (5/1) is quick and will likely break to the lead looking to hold off the challengers.
Eagle in the Sky and Wilder Than Most, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 8/1
Race 8 concludes the day at beautiful Del Mar “Where the Turf Meets the Surf.” This is a Maiden Special Weight for state-breds going 1 mile on the turf. numberFire projects longshot Just About Enough (12/1) to pull the upset over Eagle in the Sky (3/1). Just About Enough makes just his second start, and he failed to fire in his debut last month.
Eagle in the Sky finished fourth in his recent turf start off a long layoff. He’s had a solid work tab since that race and should fire for the McCarthy jockey/trainer team.
Really Big News (5/2) finished second in two turf sprints and is bred for two turns. Top turf rider Umberto Rispoli is aboard from the No. 12 post. Wilder than Most (8/1) makes just his third start at age four, and he can hit the board and make a late run, per Guaranteed Tip Sheet. Flavien Prat takes the reins for the first time with a pair of strong morning works recently.