Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday 7/23/21
As always, check the program for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Violent Point and Fetching, Race 2
FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/1 and 5/2
Race 2 is an Allowance sprint for state-bred fillies and mares at 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. numberFire's algorithm projects Rossa Veloce (6/1) to sprint home in front of Cartwheel (2/1) and Fetching (5/2).
Rossa Veloce goes into the starting gate and runs only if the race moves to the dirt, and same goes for Cartwheel. This is Rossa Veloce's second race off a layoff, and she won wire-to-wire on the dirt late last year.
Fetching has been close to winning with improved speed figures. She finished second last month, and leading jockey Luis Saez rides again.
Time Limit (9/5) is the favorite in the outside No. 10 post for EPO trainer Mike Maker. She’s hit the board in five straight starts with one win but is a bit vulnerable and likely not worth the risk/reward.
Look toward well-bred Violent Point (8/1) at a bigger price. She won here in May on the front end and has a jockey change to Manny Franco with more potential than her two recent results show.
Ajourneytofreedom, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1
Race 6 is a 1-1/2 mile marathon on the inner turf. This Allowance race drew 15 entries, but 10 will race if it stays on the turf. numberFire's data makes a clear case for Ajourneytofreedom (3/1). EPO trainer Mike Maker’s four-year-old gelding has a strong class rating and has run consistently well in seven straight races despite no wins.
Top stretch jockey Joel Rosario should get Ajourneytofreedom home in front of a number of longshots that are capable of getting home in fine fashion -- like Jaiss Solitude (8/1) and Carom (8/1) for EPO trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr.
He’s No Lemon (72/) makes his second start off a layoff. He won at this level over the Saratoga turf one year ago as the favorite and is numberFire’s second choice.
Jouster and Amy C, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/2 and 9/2
Race 9 is the $150,000 Grade 3 Lake George Stakes. There are 10 three-year-old fillies racing 1 mile on the inner turf. It's a deep field that includes four fillies for EPO trainer Chad Brown, one of which is numberFire’s second choice on the outside, Minaun (6/1). Also, Brown’s Amy C (9/2) has untapped potential and won her U.S. debut last month to break her maiden.
Todd Pletcher-trained Jouster (7/2) is numberFire’s projected winner. She’ll likely be running along the lead and cuts back in distance after finishing fourth in a Grade 3 race last month. But she won three of her previous four races this year, including a Grade 2 race, and she also finished runner-up in a Grade 3 with some solid speed figures across the board.
Horse Racing Radar notes that Toby’s Heart (10/1) ran the top last-race speed figure. Demodog (12/1) is undefeated in two starts while Runaway Rumour (6/1) is getting better and is undefeated in three starts.