Belmont Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 7/10/21
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Con Lima and Santa Barbara, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1 and 1/1
Race 7 is the $700K Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational for 3-year-old fillies racing 1 1/4 miles on the inner turf.
The numberFire algorithm projects Con Lima (5/1) to win ahead of Plum Ali (7/2). The heavy favorite is Santa Barbara (1/1).
The Euro shipper has run well in three Group 1 races since breaking her maiden on debut last year. That includes a runner-up finish last month at this distance against older horses, and she will get supported in her U.S. debut with Ryan Moore coming in to ride for trainer Aiden O’Brien.
Guaranteed Tip Sheet also makes the case for Coma Lima to get out front with Flavien Prat riding and stay on well to upset Santa Barbara. She has tactical speed as well and has won 4-or-6 this year for trainer Todd Pletcher. Horse Racing Radar notes she’s won five of six turf races and has the best turf speed with solid late speed figures.
Plum Ali is a threat with strong stretch rider Joel Rosario. She’ll need more speed to run into, but she’s run well in two starts this year and better last month at Belmont. A late runner to include in exacta and trifecta wagering.
Gam's Mission (8/1) is three for three this year and Horse Racing Radar notes she has the best last race speed rating.
Australasia, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 2/1
Race 8 is the $150K Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at 6 1/2 furlongs.
The three major players all raced against each other in the Jersey Girl Stakes at Belmont last month and Australasia (2/1) came home in a blistering final quarter mile in 22.9 seconds. The numberFire data projects her to challenge Miss Brazil (5/2) for the win. Miss Brazil was the 4/5 favorite in the Jersey Girl and finished third with leading jockey Jose Ortiz riding.
Miss Brazil had to be reloaded in the gate last race and was sluggish. She’ll bounce back and run better having also put in a best-of-96 horses 4-furlong bullet workout this week.
Australasia is six for six, including five straight wins this year for EPO trainer Brad Cox.
Bella Sofia could scratch as she’s entered in another race on Sunday’s closing day at Belmont.
Ova Charged (10/1) steps up in class but has won two races with ease including over a sloppy track.
Souper Sensational (8/1) had trouble last race at Churchill in April but came back with a pair of bullet workouts. She’s sired by the great Curlin and has potential to surprise.
Hard Love and Sainthood, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 10/1
Race 9 is the $1 million Grade I Belmont Derby for 3-year-olds racing 1 1/4 miles on the inner turf.
Belshoi Ballet (7/5) is proven at this distance, and he’s shipped in by trainer Aiden O’Brien for his U.S. debut. He had a very impressive Group 3 win in May before faltering as the favorite in the longer Epsom Derby to finish seventh.
The numberFire data data has Du Jour (9/2) upsetting Belshoi Ballet and Sainthood (10/1) also hitting the board. But Hard Love (5/2), who Guaranteed Tip Sheet believes is better, can continue his strong campaign to win his third straight race. Horse Racing Radar notes Hard Love has the best turf speed.
Safe Conduct (15/1) is an underrated longshot, showed good turf ability last year, and is improving as a three-year-old. That includes a strong Allowance win two races back. He did finish fourth behind Sainthood (10/1) last race with that Grade 3 race moved off the turf to the dirt. Sainthood also ran in the Kentucky Derby, but he’s well-bred for the turf, and trainer Todd Pletcher has Joel Rosario riding again.