Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday 4/23/21
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:05 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Keeneland. Using numberFire’s projections and Daily Horse Picks as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Crew Dragon and Kobla Miss, Race 5
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 10/1
Race 5 is an Allowance race for three-year-olds going a 1 1/8 miles on the turf. The top pick according to numberFire's data is Catman (5/1) with favorite Crew Dragon (5/2) expected to hit the board.
Top Race Reports notes that Crew Dragon won in January and then posted a top 92 speed figure when finishing second last month. Trainer Bill Mott continues to get improvement when racing at a longer distance, and this colt is looking for more with the meet's leading jockey, Luis Saez, riding. Catman has raced in five straight listed stakes, and EPO trainer Mike Maker got improvement in the last race as Catman made up ground late when finishing fifth.
There are many high 80s speed figures in the field, and there is one to consider moving down the lane. Kobla Miss (10/1) has value and can be included in exacta and trifecta wagering. He is improving and showing he wants more ground with improved late speed last race on a deeper track at Fair Grounds.
Bakers Bay and Battalion, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/2 and 4/1
Race 7 is an Allowance race for older horses going 1 3/16 miles on the turf. The numberFire algorithm projects Ocean Atlantique (2/1) and Conviction Trade (4/1) to decide this race. Ocean Atlantique makes his ninth start but just his second in the U.S. after finishing a close fifth on debut as the race favorite at Keeneland last month, posting a 98 speed figure in the process.
Conviction Trade is a best bet of Guaranteed Tip Sheet (GTS), and he makes his Keeneland debut in his 15th start after racing in a pair of graded stakes this year. He finished third in January against a weaker group and posted a 112 speed figure. GTS agrees with Top Race Reports that Battalion (4/1) is also a win contender for EPO trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. He’s well bred, can go longer and has finished first and third this year since adding blinkers.
Top Race Reports (through East Coast Handicapping Report [ECHR]) also likes Bakers Bay (9/2) and notes he’s running right back after racing two weeks ago off a longer layoff. That tells us trainer Shug McGaughey III feels his horse is fine and ready to run well in a quick turnaround race.
Dominga and Margaret’s Joy, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1 and 20/1
The second-to-last race of the spring meet is the $150K Grade III Bewitch Stakes for older fillies and mares running a 1 1/2-mile marathon on the turf. numberFire projects favorite War Like Goddess (7/2) to win, and Horse Racing Radar notes she ran this field's top last-race speed figure and can improve again after winning the Grade III Orchid Stakes by a nose last month when rallying from off the pace. She’s won 3-of-4 career starts.
Delta’s Kingdom (4/1) can challenge to win in a second start off a layoff with improvement expected and leading jockey Luis Saez riding.
Looking at EPO trainers at this distance, you must consider Dominga (5/1) for trainer Brad Cox. Sired by Ghostzapper, she ran very well when finishing second by a neck last month off a layoff, posting a 111 speed figure. Margaret’s Joy (20/1) offers good risk/reward and value, per ECHR, and she finished third in a pair of races this year, showing solid closing speed last race.