​Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday 4/18/21

It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.

Starting at 1:05 p.m. EST, we have nine races at Keeneland. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

Flatter Me Silly and Speed Lane, Race 1

FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/2 and 5/1

The day begins with a Maiden Special Weight for three-year-old fillies racing 1 mile on the turf. The top pick of numberFire’s data is Speightstown Shirl (7/2), with High Fair (9/2) and Flatter Me Silly (9/2) projected to hit the board.

Speightstown Shirl is very well bred and makes her second career start (and 2021 debut). She finished second at Woodbine last September and has been breezing through workouts in Florida. Flatter Me Silly is working sharply and should run well. She is stretching out after finishing a hard-closing second last month.

Speed Lane (5/1) comes in from Fair Grounds, where she’s raced three times this year with a pair of runner-up finishes. Her last race was a front-running loss by a neck at a slightly longer distance, and she could take this gate to wire.

Sovereign Change, Race 8

FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1

Race 8 is a Maiden Claiming race at 7 furlongs with a full field of 12 runners. The numberFire algorithm projects Sovereign Change (3/1) and Scary Larry (4/1) to decide this race.

Scary Larry runs back to this level after missing the money last month at Fair Grounds. He had a strong 4-furlong workout in preparation and should run better from off the pace. Sovereign Change is a best bet of Guaranteed Tip Sheet, which agrees with numberFire that he’ll run back to his February race form (78 speed figure) and win. Sovereign Change will likely be overbet with the meet's leading jockey, Luis Saez, riding and sporting a strong 44% win rate in 32 Maiden/Claiming starts.

Pitaman (7/2) showed some improvement last race when finishing runner-up and could challenge as a pace presser.

Nevisian Sunrise and Ms. Temptation, Race 9

FanDuel Racing Odds: 1/1 and 8/1

Race 9 is a Maiden Special Weight for three-year-old fillies racing 1 mile on the turf. numberFire projects favorite Nevisian Sunrise (1/1) to win this race.

With EPO trainer Chad Brown feeding Nevisian Sunrise more than oats and hay, and top stretch rider Joel Rosario bringing her home, she’ll be tough to beat. She’s finished second in both her starts, including last month when just missing by a neck at this distance and posting a strong 96 speed figure. She’ll probably be heavily bet and offers no value, but we can include her in vertical and horizontal wagers and the Super High Five.

Ms. Temptation (8/1) and Sweet Workout (8/1) could contend at longer odds. Ms. Temptation is a first time starter with a good work tab and pedigree. Sweet Workout is also working sharply and had a pair of runner-up finishes in February when going slightly longer but needs to show stronger speed to contend.