Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 4/10/21
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:05 p.m. EST, we have 11 races at Keeneland. Using numberFire’s projections and Daily Horse Picks as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Beau Luminarie and Night, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 1/1
Race 7 is the $150K Grade III Ben Ali Stakes for older horses going a 1 1/8-mile route. The projected winner by numberFire's data is between top choice Silver Dust (5/2) and the favorite Night Ops (1/1). Silver Dust is making his third start after a layoff, and the seven-year-old has been off form since finishing third in a pair of stakes races and posting low triple-digit speed figures. Night Ops won three times last year and finished third in a pair of races this year. The EPO-trained colt by Brad Cox posted a 107 speed figure last race in a minor stakes. His late-pace speed numbers are some of the best in this field, according to Horse Racing Radar (HRR).
HRR notes that Treasure Trove (8/1) ran the highest last-race speed figure when finishing fourth last race for EPO trainer Mike Maker. Beau Luminarie (3/1) has finished in the money in 9-of-11 races. He steps up from Allowance company but had finished second six straight times until winning last race. He’s posted a pair of 110 speed figures, has shown good tactical speed and is making his Keeneland debut.
Noble Reflection and Swiftsure, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 15/1 and 5/1
Race 9 is the $200K Grade III Lexington Stakes for three-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles. This is the FanDuel Racing feature race, and the top pick according to numberFire's data the heavy favorite Proxy (6/5) followed by Hockey Dad (8/1). Guaranteed Tip Sheet likes Swiftsure (5/1) to pull the upset, and the lightly raced three-year-old is undefeated in two starts with each by margin. He’ll press the pace with leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and should welcome the extra ground, according to HRR. Proxy has finished first or second in five of six starts, including the Risen Star Stakes. He finished fourth in his last race in the Louisiana Derby.
Look for Hockey Dad (8/1) to be racing on or near the lead, and he cuts back in distance. He’s won 3-of-4 starts this year and finished third in the 1 1/8-mile Jeff Ruby Steaks last race with his best speed figure to date (93). Noble Reflection (15/1) has EPO on his side with trainer Richard Baltas. He broke his maiden last month in his second start, and the talented son of Liam’s Map went wire-to-wire to win by 4 1/2 lengths while hitting 102 on the speed gun.
King Fury (10/1) is a son of the great Curlin. He’s working sharply for his 2021 debut after missing the money in two graded stakes last year, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’ll likely be one of the speed horses up front and could surprise.
Tamahere and Juliet Foxtrot, Race 10
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 7/2
Race 10 is the $300K Grade I Jenny Wiley Stakes for older fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. The projected winner by numberFire's algorithm is Tamahere (5/2) with favorite Micheline (2/1) expected to hit the board from the rail with leading jockey Luis Saez. She may be far back and is a vulnerable favorite.
Tamahere (5/2) is a better contender as one of two runners in the race for EPO trainer Chad Brown with jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. up. She’s a major player, per Guaranteed Tip Sheet, and has hit the board in 6-of-7 starts on the turf. The France-based filly won a Grade II race last year upon arrival to Brown’s barn, and she now makes her 2021 debut after finishing sixth as the favorite late last year behind third-place finisher Juliet Foxtrot (7/2), who is in the care of EPO trainer Brad Cox and also off her last race in November. She’s a proven stakes runner, and has finished in the money in all three starts over this turf track.
La Signature (10/1) is a value longshot who figures to progress forward and have plenty of energy with top jockey Johnny Velazquez likely bringing her running late.