Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday 4/7/21
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:05 p.m. EST, we have 8 races at Keeneland. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
The Flying Pharoah and Elle Est Forte, Race 3
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1 and 6/1
Race 3 is a Maiden Special Weight for 3-year-old fillies racing a 1 1/8 mile route on the Turf. The top pick according to numberFire’s data is A Thing of Beauty (9/2) followed by The Flying Pharoah (5/1) and Elle Est Forte (6/1).
Top Race Reports of the ECHR and Guaranteed Tip Sheet also sees value with The Flying Pharoah, picking her to win. The Flying Pharoah missed the money in her debut in February over a rock hard Gulfstream track. She came flying home in 29.2 from the back of the pack, and top stretch rider and leading jockey Joel Rosario takes over to give her a better ride for top trainer Christophe Clement.
Elle Est Forte improved last race in January, and she’s been freshened and placed well by trainer Ian Wilkes. A Thing of Beauty hasn’t shown much in two starts for EPO trainer Todd Pletcher, but we always must consider these runners racing longer distances for EPO trainers, which also applies to Chad Brown filly Ballacolla with top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding.
Scarabea and Zuri, Race 5
FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1 and 5/1
Race 5 is the same as the race above, a 1 1/8 mile route for 3-year-old fillies on the Turf. Nine runners are entered, and numberFire projects the slight favorite to win, Third Draft (7/2), followed by Munnyfor Ro (4/1). Third Draft is 0-for-3 but posted her best speed figure of 87 when finishing third off a layoff a month ago with a big late rally from the back as the favorite.
Top Race Reports goes for value again with Scarabea (6/1) and Zuri (5/1), who is an overlay after being bet down to 8/5 in her debut but finishing fourth. She returns in three weeks for trainer Bill Mott with two added workouts in place. Going longer off that race is likely a good sign of health and placement to do better. Scarabea is off a long layoff, improved her last start before being shut down, and excellent horseman Jack Sisterson spots her in an ultra long turf route. We’ll bite.
Pocket Square and Flabbergasted, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 6/1
Race 7 is an Allowance race for older fillies and mares at 1 1/16 miles on the Turf. The numberFire algorithm project the favorite Pocket Square (3/1 to win in her American debut ahead of Tuned (7/2). Twelve runners are entered along with three also-eligible and a main track only runner.
Pocket Squared makes her U.S. debut after running against stronger in a Grade III race in Deauville. Top Race Reports notes those meets are arguably the best in the world. She’s working well off the layoff and top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets the riding assignment for EPO trainer Chad Brown. Dangerous dynamics in place.
Flabbergasted (6/1) needs to break quickly from the rail, and she’ll be pushed from the gate by jockey Tyler Gaffaloine. She won two in a row with improved speed figures to 91 at Churchill Downs and now enters off a long layoff looking to win her 2021 debut on first asking.